- Baked In
- Posts
- đ„ The Fight For Florida Is On
đ„ The Fight For Florida Is On
GM Everyone,
Yesterday we digested big gains.
Today we feast.
đž The Tape
Floridaâs road to a 2026 adult-use marijuana vote is starting to look less like a smooth campaign trail and more like a courtroom drama. On August 12, Smart and Safe Floridaâthe group pushing a constitutional amendment to legalize recreational cannabisâasked a federal judge for âcomplete reliefâ from a state law they say handcuffs their petition-gathering efforts.
Their beef? A provision in HB 1205, which took effect July 1, makes it a crime for nonresidents and noncitizens to collect petition signatures. U.S. District Judge Mark Walker already hit the pause button on that part of the law last month, finding it âimpose[d] a severe burden on political expressionâ and likely violates the First Amendment.
But Smart and Safe isnât satisfied with just a partial victory. Their attorney, Glenn Burhans, told Walker in a telephonic hearing that unless state attorneys are also barred from enforcing the law, nonresident circulators will stay on the sidelines out of fear of prosecution. âTo get complete relief,â Burhans argued, âSmart and Safe needs to have the state attorneys enjoined so that their circulatorsâŠwill go back out in the field and do their work.â
The state, unsurprisingly, isnât thrilled about the request. Mohammad Jazil, counsel for Florida Secretary of State Cord Byrd, warned that filing another preliminary injunction while the first is already under appeal could get messy. In other words: One injunction at a time, please.
Smart and Safe Florida isnât fighting alone. Theyâre joined by Florida Decides Healthcare (pushing Medicaid expansion) and Florida Right to Clean Water in challenging the law. All argue that the circulator restrictions are less about election integrity and more about choking off citizen-led ballot measuresââdepriving our oxygen,â as one group put it.
For the cannabis campaign, this is dĂ©jĂ vu. Their adult-use measure made the 2024 ballot but fell short of the stateâs 60% supermajority requirement. Theyâre back at it for 2026 with a revised proposal, this time anticipating criticism for not addressing marketing to minors or public consumption in last yearâs version.
Whether Judge Walker grants the âcomplete reliefâ Smart and Safe wants could decide how quickly out-of-state petitioners can hit Florida streets again. And with the clock ticking toward signature deadlines, the case is as much about political free speech as it is about pot.
One thingâs certain: in Floridaâs cannabis wars, courtroom strategy is just as important as campaign strategy.
đ Dog Walkers
$GRUSF ( ⌠4.96% ) Grown Rogueâs Margins Slip
Whatâs Going On Here: Grown Rogueâs Q2 2025 results show a company threading the needle between pricing pressure and expansion ambitions. Pro Forma revenue (including New Jersey affiliate ABCO) rose 4% year-over-year to $8.01M, while Pro Forma Adjusted EBITDA fell 12% to $1.82M, with margins dipping to 22.7%. Excluding last yearâs Vireo services revenue, top-line grew 8%, but margins still slipped.
State-level performance reflected the broader cannabis price correction. Oregon pulled in $3.08M revenue with 26.1% margins, despite A-grade flower ASPs falling 25% YoY. Michigan saw a steeper hitâdown 34% in revenue to $2.28M and margins at 34.2%, with ASPs off 26%. New Jersey, the new growth engine, contributed $2.65M revenue at a robust 48.6% margin.
CEO Obie Strickler framed pricing declines as a healthy market evolution, emphasizing cost control, quality improvements, and leveraging Oregon/Michigan lessons in New Jersey. Expansion continues with Phase 1 of Illinois cultivation and potential Minnesota entry.
CSO Josh Rosen sees distressed assets as ripe pickings for Grown Rogueâs low-cost, high-quality modelâbetting that disciplined execution and selective opportunism will fuel growth over the next 18â24 months.
Matt Gaetz Drops Bars
Whatâs Going On Here: Former GOP congressman Matt Gaetz is back in the cannabis spotlight, using his One America News platform to urge President Trump to reschedule marijuanaâand warning that if he does, âthe game is over for Democrats at the ballot box.â Gaetz, once Trumpâs pick for attorney general before withdrawing, ridiculed marijuanaâs Schedule I status, likening it to treating weed as worse than fentanyl.
He painted rescheduling as âpopulism meets practicality,â envisioning MAGA hats at dispensary counters and pre-rolls named 1776 Freedom Kush. Beyond the humor, Gaetz argued itâs common sense policy: unclog courts, free up police for real crime, and stop pretending dispensary storefronts are cartel fronts.
Trump recently confirmed heâs âlooking atâ rescheduling, with a decision in weeks, but hasnât restated his campaign-trail support. Meanwhile, PACs aligned with himâand funded in part by cannabis industry donorsâare running ads to push him forward.
Gaetzâs pitch? Reschedule loudly, with a gold Sharpie, and troll the opposition. In his view, itâs good politics, good economics, and the long-overdue end to pretending Snoop Dogg and El Chapo are in the same business.
đïž The News
đș YouTube
Trump Signals Cannabis Rescheduling Decision Could Be Weeks Away | TDR Cannabis in 5
What we will cover:
â At a White House briefing earlier this week, President Donald Trump delivered his clearest signal yet that federal cannabis reform could be on the horizon, telling reporters: âWeâre looking at reclassification and weâll make a determination over the next few weeks.â
On The TDR Cannabis in Five, hosted by Shadd Dales and presented by Dutchie, we explain exactly what Trump said, why it matters, and how this could reshape the U.S. cannabis market. If cannabis is reclassified from Schedule I to a less restrictive category like Schedule III, the shift would be immediate and far-reachingâreducing criminal penalties, opening the door for expanded medical research, and removing Section 280E tax restrictions that have weighed heavily on cannabis businesses for years.
Trumpâs remarks come after months of stalled action under the Biden administration, despite HHS recommending rescheduling back in 2023. Now, with his DEA nominee Terrance Cole in place, the pathway could reopenâthough he hasnât made a public commitment yet.