💸 The Tape

The war on marijuana didn't end with a bang. It's ending with a spreadsheet — and the numbers tell a story that even the most committed prohibitionist would struggle to argue with.

The U.S. Sentencing Commission released data showing that federal marijuana trafficking cases fell to just 383 in fiscal year 2025 — another record low and a 62% decline from 2021. To put that in perspective, federal prosecutors brought nearly 5,000 cannabis trafficking cases in 2013 and 3,500 in 2015. In just over a decade, federal cannabis enforcement has collapsed to a level where marijuana cases account for approximately 2.4% of all federal drug prosecutions. Heroin trafficking cases — at 356 — actually came in below marijuana for the first time.

The number of people sentenced in federal courts for cannabis-related trafficking or possession has declined from 5,554 in 2015 to just 400 last year. Criminal sentences for marijuana offenses averaged 44 months — the lowest among all drug categories, though up from 36 months the year prior.

The trend line is unmistakable. As more states have legalized, federal prosecutors have systematically deprioritized cannabis. The question is no longer whether the war on marijuana is winding down — it's whether anyone in Washington is willing to admit it's already over.

A $34 Billion Industry the Government Helped Build

The decline in federal cannabis enforcement has unfolded alongside the emergence of one of the fastest-growing consumer industries in America.

The U.S. legal cannabis market generated approximately $33.8 billion in retail sales in 2025, up roughly 5% from $32.1 billion in 2024, according to the MJBiz Factbook 2026. BDSA breaks that down further: approximately $23.9 billion in adult-use sales and $7.6 billion in medical — with adult-use representing more than 75% of the total regulated market.

California remains the largest single market at $4.06 billion, followed by Michigan ($3.49 billion), Florida's medical-only program ($2.25 billion), and Illinois ($2.18 billion). Across all legal states, adult-use cannabis has generated more than $29 billion in cumulative tax revenue since legalization began in 2014, including roughly $4.4 billion in calendar year 2025 alone.

The industry now supports over 425,000 full-time jobs nationwide, and approximately 64.2 million Americans used cannabis in 2024 — the highest figure ever recorded. For the first time, there are now more daily cannabis users in the U.S. than daily alcohol drinkers.

The MJBiz Factbook projects the domestic market will reach $60 billion by 2030 at a 12.2% compound annual growth rate, assuming continued adult-use expansion in states like Pennsylvania, Florida, and Texas, plus the federal rescheduling benefits already underway.

By any measure — revenue, employment, consumer adoption, tax contribution — legal cannabis is a mainstream American industry. The federal enforcement data simply reflects what the market already proved.

The Teen Usage Myth: Demolished by Data

If there's a single argument that prohibitionists have clung to more tenaciously than any other, it's the claim that legalization would unleash a wave of teen marijuana use. The data hasn't just failed to support that claim — it has systematically destroyed it.

According to the Monitoring the Future (MTF) survey — the gold standard of federally funded youth substance use research — teen cannabis use has been in sustained decline since 2012, the year Colorado and Washington became the first states to legalize adult-use marijuana.

Between 2012 and 2025, the percentage of 12th graders reporting having ever used cannabis fell 23%. Among 10th graders, it fell 35%. Among 8th graders, lifetime use dropped 17%. Past-year cannabis use fell 30% among 12th graders, 44% among 10th graders, and 34% among 8th graders over the same period. Past-month use — the most meaningful measure of active consumption — declined 25% among 12th graders, 45% among 10th graders, and 38% among 8th graders.

The state-level data is even more striking. In Colorado — the longest-running adult-use laboratory — only 12.8% of high school students reported past-month cannabis use in 2023, down from 22% in 2011, the year before legalization. That's a 42% decline. Perceived access has also fallen: in 2013, 55% of Colorado teens said marijuana was easy to obtain. By 2023, that figure dropped to 40%. Compliance checks found a 99% rate of dispensaries successfully denying sales to minors.

Washington State shows similar patterns: past-month use among 12th graders dropped 38% since legalization, 58% among 10th graders, and 61% among 8th graders.

A Marijuana Policy Project analysis found that youth cannabis use declined in 19 of 21 states with before-and-after legalization data, with teen consumption down an average of 35% across the earliest states to legalize. A JAMA study analyzing data from more than 1.4 million high school students found "no significant associations" between legalization laws and increased marijuana use among adolescents.

Minnesota's 2025 Student Survey — the first conducted after the state legalized in 2023 — showed 96% of students reported no cannabis use in the past month, with self-reported use among 8th, 9th, and 11th graders falling 57.7% since 2013.

The data is overwhelming and consistent across federal surveys, state surveys, and peer-reviewed research: legalization does not increase teen cannabis use. In most cases, it reduces it — likely because regulated markets with mandatory ID checks, age-gating, and compliance enforcement are more effective at preventing youth access than unregulated street dealers who never asked for identification in the first place.

The Disconnect

What emerges from these three data streams — collapsing federal prosecutions, a $34 billion legal industry generating billions in tax revenue, and declining teen usage — is a portrait of a policy debate that the evidence has already settled.

Federal prosecutors have all but stopped pursuing cannabis cases. The legal market is growing, employing hundreds of thousands, and funding schools and infrastructure across the country. And the apocalyptic predictions about youth consumption have been contradicted by over a decade of government-funded research.

The remaining opposition to cannabis reform doesn't rest on data. It rests on inertia, ideology, and the political convenience of maintaining a prohibition framework that the federal government's own enforcement agencies have already abandoned in practice.

The war on marijuana is over. The federal government just hasn't filed the paperwork yet — though with Schedule III rescheduling, DEA registration, and Trulieve trading on the NYSE, even that is starting to change.

The numbers don't lie. They never did.

Source: Marijuana Moment

📈 Dog Walkers

$CRLBF ( ▲ 5.03% ) Lands $50M Revolver

Cresco Labs just did something that would have been unthinkable two years ago: it secured a $50 million revolving credit facility from an actual bank.

Needham Bank, a Massachusetts-based commercial lender, is providing the facility at a fixed 7.99% annual interest rate with a maturity of August 2030. The non-dilutive credit line is available to fund growth initiatives, acquisitions, and general corporate purposes — giving Cresco flexible capital on terms that cannabis companies historically could only dream about.

For context, the U.S. cannabis industry has been almost entirely reliant on private credit at double-digit rates, often with onerous covenants, warrant coverage, and short maturities. A conventional commercial bank revolving facility at sub-8% fixed interest represents a fundamentally different tier of capital access — one that signals genuine institutional normalization.

CEO Charlie Bachtell framed the facility as both a company milestone and an industry one: "Access to conventional bank capital gives us a powerful, non-dilutive tool to accelerate our strategy." He pointed to Cresco's recent Pennsylvania dispensary acquisition as evidence of the company's appetite for accretive M&A and said the facility positions Cresco to "drive growth, strengthen our balance sheet and support us as we work toward broader access to U.S. capital markets and a future uplisting to a senior exchange."

Needham Bank isn't just providing the credit line — it's offering a comprehensive banking platform including cash management and consumer payments, establishing a full-service relationship with one of the largest publicly traded cannabis companies in the country.

The timing aligns with the broader industry trajectory. Trulieve just listed on the NYSE. Curaleaf and Verano are executing reverse splits in preparation for potential uplisting. And now Cresco is accessing bank-grade capital at rates that look more like mainstream commercial lending than cannabis survival financing.

The capital markets wall is cracking. Cresco just walked through another opening.

$OPTH ( ▲ 11.21% ) Secures Ibogain Supply

Optimi Health is adding another psychedelic compound to its manufacturing platform — and this one has the federal government's attention.

The commercial-stage pharmaceutical manufacturer announced it has secured naturally derived ibogaine in both hydrochloride and freebase form from two sources, with development work on finished drug products expected to begin this summer at its GMP facility in British Columbia. The company plans two dosage sizes — 50 mg and 100 mg capsules — with a full in-house program covering SOPs, validation, analytical testing, and packaging.

The timing aligns with significant policy momentum. President Trump's April 2026 Executive Order named ibogaine among psychedelic therapies prioritized for accelerated FDA review and directed federal funding to match state investments — including Texas's $50 million ibogaine research program. A 2024 Stanford-led study published in Nature Medicine reported meaningful reductions in PTSD, depression, and anxiety among U.S. Special Operations veterans following a single ibogaine treatment.

Canada's regulatory environment gives Optimi a structural advantage: ibogaine is not a controlled substance there, while it remains Schedule I in the United States. Combined with Optimi's existing Health Canada licensing and GMP infrastructure already manufacturing psilocybin and MDMA, the company is positioned as a natural supply partner for the growing pipeline of ibogaine research programs.

🗞️ The News

📺 Trade To Black

Trulieve Makes History on the NYSE | Indiana Signals Movement on Cannabis | TTB Presented by Flowhub

• Historic Uplisting: Trulieve begins trading on the NYSE under ticker "TRLV" on June 10 — the first U.S. plant-touching cannabis operator ever approved for a senior exchange, with major implications for liquidity, institutional access, and cannabis ETFs like MSOS and MSOX.

• Indiana Movement: Michael Bronstein breaks down new momentum in Indiana, where Governor Mike Braun has signaled openness to medical cannabis reform following federal rescheduling, with legislative efforts forming around a potential medical program.

• Virginia Budget Play: Lawmakers are actively discussing inserting cannabis legalization language into the state budget during ongoing hearings — a strategic workaround after Governor Spanberger's veto of the retail sales bill last month.

• Domino Effect: Trulieve's NYSE approval raises the immediate question of which MSOs follow — with Curaleaf, Verano, Green Thumb, and others already executing reverse splits and corporate restructurings to position for similar uplisting opportunities.