• Baked In
  • Posts
  • 🌿 Tilray Kicks Off Cannabis Earnings Season

🌿 Tilray Kicks Off Cannabis Earnings Season

GM Everyone,

Not everyone has an agenda folks.

💸 The Tape

Tilray Brands (Nasdaq: TLRY) closed out its fiscal year ended May 31, 2025, with record revenue across its cannabis, beverage, and wellness segments—but also with a staggering $2.18 billion net loss (YIKES!) driven almost entirely by a non-cash impairment tied to its Aphria merger-era goodwill. The company insists the headline loss is an accounting artifact and not a reflection of operational momentum, pointing instead to rising gross margins, expanded international sales, and a fortified balance sheet with $256 million in liquidity and nearly $100 million in debt retired.

CEO Irwin Simon called FY2025 a “pivotal year,” highlighting a 19% jump in international cannabis sales (and a 71% spike in Q4), fueled by a strategy to redirect high-margin inventory overseas amid Canada’s price compression. Cannabis gross margin hit 40% for the year, up 700 basis points. Beverage sales climbed 19% to $240.6 million, aided by Tilray’s Molson Coors craft beer acquisitions, though margins tightened as the new portfolio integrated under “Project 420.”

One of the more intriguing growth levers is Tilray’s hemp-derived delta-9 THC beverages, now in 13 U.S. states via its craft beer distribution network. Management sees the segment as a bridge between cannabis, wellness, and mainstream retail—and a hedge against stalled U.S. federal reform.

On the wellness side, revenue grew 9%, while Tilray continued to lean into its AI strategy. The company is deploying machine learning and horticultural automation in its global greenhouse footprint to cut labor, water, and energy costs while driving yield and consistency—an operational pivot Simon says “differentiates Tilray from the broader competitive landscape.”

Adjusted EBITDA for the year came in at $55 million, slightly down from $60.5 million, with FY2026 guidance targeting $62–72 million, a 13–31% lift.

For investors, the story is a tale of two Tilrays: an operationally leaner, globally diversified CPG platform finding margin expansion in cannabis and beverages—and a financial statement dented by legacy M&A valuations from the 2021 U.S. legalization hype cycle. Whether the market buys into the growth narrative or fixates on the headline loss will set the tone heading into FY2026.

Key watch items: European expansion (112% growth ex-Australia), U.S. hemp beverage scale-up, and whether AI-powered cultivation can meaningfully shift Canadian unit economics. Tilray’s strategy may not be subtle, but in a market starved for catalysts, big bets might be exactly what keeps the stock relevant.

📈 Dog Walkers

Texas Continues To Go Backwards

What’s Going On Here: Week two of Texas’s special session, and hemp is back in the crosshairs. Sen. Charles Perry’s SB 5—which would criminalize any detectable THC in consumable hemp products—is now joined by a House twin, HB 5, filed by Rep. Gary VanDeaver (R). Both bills would effectively wipe out full-spectrum CBD and make mere possession a Class B misdemeanor with up to 180 days in jail.

Gov. Greg Abbott (R) isn’t on board with the scorched-earth approach. He’s pushing for a compromise: cap hemp products at “non-intoxicating” levels (he’s floated both three percent and three milligrams of THC, which aren’t exactly the same thing) and ban sales to anyone under 21.

Advocates argue SB 5 and HB 5 go way beyond what Abbott wants, warning they’d gut the state’s hemp industry. The Senate is expected to revisit SB 5 this week, while the House bill awaits a hearing.

Translation: the fight between “regulate” and “ban” is officially live, and Texas hemp operators are watching to see if this session ends with limits or a legal extinction-level event.

Trump Backs Joe Gruters

What’s Going On Here: Donald Trump is doubling down on his cannabis-friendly streak, officially endorsing Florida state Sen. Joe Gruters (R) to lead the Republican National Committee. Gruters, a longtime Trump ally and vocal supporter of marijuana reform, would be the most pro-cannabis RNC chair in the party’s history if he gets the job.

The endorsement puts Trump at odds yet again with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who recently snubbed Gruters for state CFO and slammed him for backing last year’s Amendment 3, the adult-use cannabis measure DeSantis fought hard to kill. “Gruters sided with the mega-weed company Trulieve and liberal Democrats,” DeSantis grumbled.

Trump, meanwhile, not only supported the measure but met with Gruters and Trulieve CEO Kim Rivers before publicly backing it. Though Amendment 3 ultimately fell short of Florida’s 60% threshold, it secured a majority of votes and signaled shifting GOP attitudes.

If Gruters ascends to the RNC chair, it would cement cannabis reform as a Republican wedge issue—and potentially accelerate the party’s pivot on marijuana policy heading into 2026.

🗞️ The News

📺 YouTube

DEA Judge Retires — What Happens to Cannabis Rescheduling? | TTB Powered by Dutchie

What we will cover:

In this episode of Trade To Black, powered by Dutchie, we’re covering two major developments around cannabis reform.

🔹 Segment 1: Michael Bronstein, President of the American Trade Association for Cannabis and Hemp (ATACH), joins us to break down what’s happening in Texas as lawmakers continue to debate the future of hemp-derived THC. A new voter poll shows strong support for banning synthetic cannabinoids like Delta-8 and Delta-10. Are Texas legislators about to tighten the rules? And what would that mean for the broader hemp market?

🔹 Segment 2: One of the top cannabis attorneys in the country, Eric Berlin from Dentons, joins us to unpack the sudden retirement of Judge John Mulrooney, the DEA’s chief administrative law judge overseeing the cannabis rescheduling hearing. Was this planned? Strategic? And what does it mean for Terrence Cole, Trump’s new DEA Administrator, who now has to take a more hands-on role?

We get into how the ALJ appointment process works, what this means for the rescheduling timeline, and whether this creates a new path — or a new roadblock — for federal cannabis reform.

Hosted by Shadd Dales and Anthony Varrell, Trade To Black is powered by Dutchie.