💸 The Tape

There's a quiet revolution happening in Canadian shopping carts, and it smells a lot more herbal than it used to.

According to a new federal report from Statistics Canada, legal recreational cannabis sales hit C$5.5 billion in the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025 — a 6.1% increase from the prior year. At the same time, alcohol purchases slipped 1.6%, producing what the agency called the largest annual decrease in government alcohol revenue since it began tracking the data back in 2004/2005.

Let that sink in for a moment. The country that practically invented the après-ski beer is buying less booze — and more bud.

Now, before anyone declares the end of happy hour, some context: Canadians still spent C$25.8 billion on alcoholic beverages during the same period. Alcohol isn't going anywhere soon. But the directional trend is hard to ignore. One line is going up. The other is going down. And the gap is narrowing.

A Maturing Market

Canada's cannabis sector is no longer in its breathless early growth phase. The 6.1% sales increase, while healthy, marks a noticeable deceleration from the 11.6% jump in 2023–2024 and the 15.8% surge the year before that. The market is settling into a more measured rhythm — the kind you'd expect from an industry transitioning from novelty to norm.

What makes the continued growth more impressive is that it happened while cannabis prices actually fell 1.1% over the year. Consumers aren't spending more per gram; they're simply buying more product. That's organic demand growth in the truest sense of the word.

On a per-capita basis, cannabis sales during the fiscal year worked out to roughly C$167 per person of legal consumption age. Not exactly a staggering figure, but a meaningful one for a market that didn't legally exist before October 2018.

Where the Growth Lives

Not all cannabis categories are sharing equally in the gains. The standout performer? Inhaled extracts, which surged to nearly one-third of total sales (31.1%) — making them the fastest-growing product segment in the country.

That tracks with what brands like Tilray's recently launched PORTAL line are banking on: high-potency vape cartridges and infused pre-rolls targeting experienced consumers who want concentrated, consistent experiences. The extract category appears to be where the most engaged consumers are migrating, and producers are following the signal.

On the flip side, solid cannabis edibles were the lone underperformer, posting a modest 2.2% sales decline. Whether that reflects market saturation, consumer preferences shifting toward faster-onset formats, or simply the fact that nobody needs another bag of THC gummies is up for debate — but the edibles honeymoon appears to be cooling.

The Substitution Effect Is Real

The divergence between rising cannabis sales and declining alcohol revenue isn't just a Canadian curiosity. It reflects a broader substitution trend that researchers have been tracking across North America.

A separate Canadian government-funded study recently concluded that alcohol and tobacco cause significantly more harm — both to individual consumers and to society at large — than marijuana. Those findings align with a growing body of evidence that's reshaping public perception around the relative risks of these substances.

The data is showing up in consumer behavior, too. Recent polling south of the border found that younger Americans are increasingly reaching for cannabis-infused beverages instead of traditional alcohol. One survey reported that one in three millennials and Gen Z workers now prefer THC drinks over booze for social occasions like after-work happy hours.

That's not a fringe finding. Another U.S. survey from October 2025 showed that a majority of Americans now view marijuana as a "healthier option" than alcohol. And most expect cannabis to be legal in all 50 states within the next five years — a sentiment that, right or wrong, signals where mainstream attitudes are heading.

The science is backing up the vibes. A federally funded U.S. study found that smoking marijuana is associated with "significantly" reduced rates of alcohol consumption — a conclusion drawn, delightfully, from research involving adults smoking joints in a makeshift bar setting. Science at its finest.

A 2024 study examining adults who drink cannabis-infused beverages found further evidence of this substitution effect, with a significant majority of participants reporting they drank less alcohol after incorporating cannabinoid beverages into their routines. People aren't just adding cannabis to the mix — they're trading one for the other.

The Regulatory Backdrop

All of this is unfolding against an evolving regulatory landscape. In the United States, the Trump administration has been weighing whether to reschedule marijuana out of Schedule I — the most restrictive federal classification, a category it currently shares with substances like heroin. A recent study added more fuel to that debate, concluding that cannabis isn't as dangerous as its current scheduling would suggest.

Canada, of course, has already cleared that hurdle with federal legalization, and the latest sales data suggests the regulated market continues to mature. But the North American picture is increasingly interconnected: as U.S. attitudes and policies shift, they create tailwinds for Canadian producers eyeing cross-border opportunities.

The Bottom Line

Nobody is writing alcohol's obituary. A C$25.8 billion market doesn't evaporate because cannabis had a good year. But the trend lines tell a story that's becoming harder to dismiss. Cannabis is gaining ground, alcohol is giving it up, and the consumers driving the shift — particularly younger demographics — don't appear to be looking back.

For an industry that spent years fighting for legitimacy, the most powerful validation might not come from regulators or researchers. It might come from the straightforward reality that more people are choosing cannabis over a cold beer — not because they have to, but because they want to.

The shopping cart doesn't lie.

Source: Tom Angell - Marijuana Moment

📈 Dog Walkers

$ATAI ( ▼ 0.79% ) Shows Promise

AtaiBeckley's nasal spray for treatment-resistant depression (TRD) just posted the kind of numbers that make pharma investors sit up a little straighter — and mental health advocates cautiously optimistic.

Peer-reviewed Phase 2a results published in CNS Drugs show that a single intranasal dose of BPL-003 (mebufotenin benzoate) delivered a 66.7% antidepressant response rate by Day 2 across both the 10 mg and 12 mg dose cohorts. Even more noteworthy: those responses proved durable. At Day 85, a full 83% of participants in the 10 mg group and 66.7% in the 12 mg group were still responding — all from one dose.

Every participant in the trial had previously failed at least two antidepressant regimens and remained on stable SSRI therapy throughout the study, making these results particularly relevant. For a patient population defined by the fact that conventional treatments haven't worked, watching MADRS scores drop into remission territory is no small thing.

On the safety front, BPL-003 reported no serious adverse events, with most drug-related side effects resolving the same day. Participants were ready for discharge in roughly 100 minutes post-dose — a practical detail that matters enormously for real-world clinical settings already stretched thin.

The drug itself is a proprietary intranasal formulation of 5-MeO-DMT, a compound that acts on 5-HT1A and 5-HT2A receptors to produce rapid-onset effects with a relatively short psychedelic experience of about two hours. It holds FDA Breakthrough Therapy Designation, granted in October 2025, and the company has confirmed that Phase 3 studies remain on track for Q2 2026 following successful alignment with the FDA at its End-of-Phase 2 meeting.

CEO Srinivas Rao called the data "a compelling clinical signal," pointing to the combination of rapid onset, lasting benefit, and compatibility with existing SSRI regimens. Chief Medical Officer Dr. Kevin Craig highlighted that the study offers the first Phase 2a evidence that BPL-003 can be safely co-administered with SSRIs — a meaningful distinction, given that many TRD patients are already on chronic antidepressant therapy.

The stakes here are considerable. TRD affects roughly 30% of the nearly 300 million people living with depression worldwide, representing one of psychiatry's most stubborn unmet needs. If BPL-003's early promise holds through Phase 3, it could reshape how clinicians approach the patients who need help the most — one spray at a time.

$TLRY ( ▲ 4.49% ) Expands Canadian Portfolio

Tilray Brands is betting that experienced cannabis consumers are tired of settling. The company just unveiled PORTAL™, a new brand built specifically for high-tolerance users who want potency they can actually feel — launching just ahead of 4/20.

The pitch is straightforward: the infused pre-roll and vape categories have exploded, but much of the market has blurred into sameness. PORTAL aims to cut through that with liquid diamonds — the highest-potency THC-dominant concentrate available — alongside diamond-coated flower and precision formulation delivering 95–99% THC in its vape cartridges and over 40% THC in its pre-rolls.

The launch lineup includes three products. Sloppy Troppy arrives as both a diamond-coated 1g sativa pre-roll with tropical and citrus notes, and a liquid diamond 510 cartridge pushing near-maximum potency. Rounding things out, Lunar Lychee offers an indica expression with lychee, Asian pear, and vanilla cream — built for a deeper, more immersive experience. All products feature what the brand calls a deliberate focus on consistency and reliability from first pull to last.

Blair MacNeil, President of Tilray Canada, framed the launch as filling a genuine gap between what experienced consumers expect and what the market currently delivers, calling PORTAL "purpose-built" for users with uncompromising standards.

Wrapped in a sci-fi-inspired identity that leans more ritual than novelty, PORTAL products are rolling out at select retailers across Canada, with availability varying by province. For the high-tolerance crowd, the portal is officially open.

🗞️ The News

📺 YouTube

What The Data Says About Cannabis and Youth | TTB Presented by Flowhub

What we will cover:

✅ A couple interesting stories this week — and a bigger conversation around how cannabis is actually being regulated in the U.S.

In the latest Trade To Black podcast, presented by Flowhub, Shadd Dales and Anthony Varrell are joined by Kyle Sherman, CEO of Flowhub, to break down what’s happening across policy, technology, and enforcement.

One story getting attention is a federally funded study showing progress on a marijuana breathalyzer — including a 3D-printed roadside tool designed to detect recent THC use. It’s early, but it shows where enforcement tools could be heading.

At the same time, Idaho lawmakers are pushing back again — approving a resolution asking voters to reject a proposed medical cannabis ballot measure. It’s another reminder that not every state is moving in the same direction.

But the bigger conversation is around youth access — and how it’s being talked about versus what’s actually happening.

Politicians continue to argue that legalization leads to more access for minors.