• Baked In
  • Posts
  • 🌿 The Math Doesn't Math On Hemp

🌿 The Math Doesn't Math On Hemp

GM Everyone,

Welcome to Epstein week.

💾 The Tape

If you’ve been wondering why hemp still feels like the “forgotten cousin” of American agriculture, Whitney Economics thinks it has found the answer: bad math at the USDA.

In a new report released Thursday, the research firm accuses the Department of Agriculture of undervaluing hemp—and, in the process, hobbling the very farmers it’s supposed to support. The problem? USDA is treating hemp like corn or soy, applying standard crop-survey methods that simply don’t fit cannabis.

USDA’s formula blends together the value of floral hemp—the flower rich in cannabinoids—and lower-value biomass into one average. That’s like averaging the price of a Kobe steak with ground chuck and wondering why ranchers are upset. By USDA’s accounting, hemp flower was worth about $18 per pound in 2024. In reality, the market says it was closer to $330 per pound.

That discrepancy isn’t just a rounding error—it’s billions of dollars off. USDA estimated the total floral hemp crop at $386 million last year. Whitney’s math? A whopping $6.9 billion, representing about 24 percent of retail value. That puts hemp farmers’ cut higher than what corn (15 percent) or soy growers (7.9 percent) earn.

The miscalculation has ripple effects. Investors see a weak market and pull back. Farmers hesitate to plant. Policymakers, looking at USDA’s spreadsheets, assume hemp is a losing bet and start talking bans rather than support. Beau Whitney, the firm’s chief economist, warns the error “is having a profound effect on the entire hemp industry and must be immediately addressed.”

The timing is particularly awkward. Congress is already gearing up for Farm Bill 2026, where the battle over intoxicating hemp products—Delta-8, THCP, and their alphabet soup cousins—threatens to overshadow any rational discussion of hemp as a crop. The Congressional Research Service recently clarified that a proposed THC ban would effectively wall off hemp-derived cannabinoids from the market.

In other words: hemp farmers are caught in a double bind. They’re undervalued on paper and over-regulated in practice. The result is a suppressed market that doesn’t reflect the reality on the ground—or the potential in the plant.

As Whitney Economics bluntly put it: hemp is not only pulling its weight, it’s outperforming America’s staple crops. Now the question is whether USDA can redo its homework before Congress makes billion-dollar policy calls based on faulty math.

📈 Dog Walkers

$AVCNF re+Play Launches In The US

Whats Going On Here: Avicanna LATAM SAS, the Colombian arm of Avicanna Inc., is taking its science-backed CBD know-how stateside with the launch of re+PLAY, a wellness brand designed in partnership with Harrington Wellness. This isn’t your average “CBD in a jar” story—it’s the culmination of years of collaboration between Avicanna’s scientists, Harrington’s athlete-first mindset, and the kind of R&D that wouldn’t look out of place in a pharmaceutical lab.

The brand is built to serve the sports community and wellness seekers alike, combining organic hemp-derived cannabinoids with Avicanna’s patented deep tissue delivery systems. The first lineup includes a 3% CBD localized cream and a 2% CBD + 1% CBG transdermal gel, both engineered for performance and recovery rather than just buzzword appeal. Importantly, the cannabinoids are grown organically at Santa Marta Golden Hemp in Colombia, ensuring the farm-to-formula story checks out.

Al Harrington, former NBA player turned wellness entrepreneur, summed it up best: this partnership delivers “a unique and scientifically backed line” for U.S. consumers who want more than hype—they want products that actually work. re+PLAY is positioned to become the new MVP of CBD topicals.


$HITI ( ▌ 2.1% ) Closes On Remexian

What’s Going On Here: High Tide just made its biggest splash yet across the Atlantic, closing the deal to acquire a 51% stake in Remexian, a German cannabis operator, for an estimated €26.4 million. Translation: the Canadian retail juggernaut is officially global. The transaction implies an enterprise value of about €53.4 million, or a multiple of 3.64x annualized EBITDA—basically, High Tide got itself a European foothold at a valuation that looks savvy for a fast-growing, federally regulated market.

The purchase price was served up as a three-course meal: €7.65M in cash, another €7.65M via a seller’s loan (at a not-too-shabby 7% interest), and roughly 5.9M High Tide shares valued at €11.1M. Plus, High Tide scored a five-year call option to scoop up the remaining 49% if they like what they see, while Remexian’s owners hold a matching put option. Both options price off trailing EBITDA, ensuring no one’s flying blind on valuation.

CEO Raj Grover framed the move as High Tide’s “transformational moment”—shifting from a purely Canadian success story into a global cannabis contender. With U.S. reform whispers and now a strong German platform, High Tide isn’t just playing the Canadian retail game anymore—it’s scaling up for the world stage.

đŸ—žïž The News

đŸ“ș YouTube

Texas Medical Cannabis: Progress and Challenges | TDR Cannabis in 5

What we will cover:

✅ TDR Cannabis in Five, presented by Dutchie, is covering the latest expansion of Texas’s medical marijuana program. At the same time, new polling shows overwhelming support from Texans who say cannabis is effective in treating chronic pain.

In this episode, host Shadd Dales outlines how the Texas Compassionate Use Program (TCUP) has broadened eligibility to include conditions such as chronic pain, traumatic brain injuries, Crohn’s disease, and patients in hospice care. This marks an important shift, potentially opening access for tens of thousands who were previously left without legal options.

Despite this progress, the program still faces significant challenges. THC levels remain capped at 1%, smokable flower is prohibited, and only three licensed operators currently serve the entire state. Many patients must travel long distances to reach a dispensary, while limited physician participation continues to hold enrollment back.

The program’s limitations stand in contrast with strong public sentiment. A NuggMD survey found that 91% of Texans who use cannabis report it helps with chronic pain. This near-unanimous agreement adds pressure on lawmakers who have historically resisted major reforms.