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GM Everyone,
Weâve seen some momentum in the narrative around the industry, but the capital markets havenât really moved, which speaks volumes. Cannabis seems to be the ultimate "show me" story, and rightfully so. This industry has faced nothing but letdowns, broken promises, and hearsay time and time again. However, my friends, in all honesty, those times are changing. We will see some form of regulatory reform and adult-use market expansion within the next couple of months. The only real debate is how comprehensive it will be.
Happy Friday.
Todayâs letter can be read in 8 minutes and 16 seconds.
đ¸ High Impact
The Current Lanscape Of Amendment 3
Amendment 3, which aims to legalize recreational marijuana in Florida, has become a hot topic as the November 2024 election approaches. As with any high-stakes ballot initiative, polling numbers are being scrutinized by both proponents and opponents to gauge where the public stands. And right now, itâs looking like the "yes" side has the wind at its backâthough perhaps not without some turbulence ahead.
Recent polling shows that Amendment 3 enjoys broad support across the state. A University of North Florida poll, released in late August, found that 64% of likely voters plan to vote in favor of the amendment, well above the 60% threshold required to pass a constitutional amendment in Florida. However, there is still a 5% chunk of undecided voters, and a firm 31% of voters plan to oppose the measureâ(
Diving deeper, support for Amendment 3 tends to break down along predictable lines. Younger voters (ages 18-49) are overwhelmingly in favor, with about 69% expressing support. Unsurprisingly, Republicans, particularly older conservatives, are more resistant. Only about 50% of Republicans polled are supportive, compared to 79% of Democrats and 63% of independents. Even among these partisan divides, itâs clear that support for legalizing recreational marijuana extends well beyond the usual progressive baseâ(
That said, a recent poll by Public Policy Polling found slightly lower support, at 57%, just under the required 60% to enact the amendment. However, with a 3.4% margin of error and 9% of voters still undecided, it's not time to panic if you're in the pro-legalization campâ(
From a financial standpoint, Amendment 3 has the backing of Smart & Safe Florida, which has amassed a war chest exceeding $66 millionâthe highest sum raised for any statewide marijuana initiative in U.S. history. The opposition, however, isnât exactly flush with cash. Governor Ron DeSantis, who opposes the amendment, has raised comparatively little, underscoring the financial disparity between the two campsâ(
So, as we look ahead, Florida seems poised to join the growing list of states that have embraced cannabis reform. But with undecided voters still on the fence and the ever-present volatility of election season, Amendment 3 advocates shouldnât rest on their laurels just yet. Keep an eye on those final polling numbersâthey might just hold the key to a green future in the Sunshine State.
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North Carolina Makes History
North Carolina is making cannabis history with its first-ever recreational marijuana dispensary set to open in Cherokee. Operated by the Eastern Band of Cherokee Indians (EBCI), this dispensary will be the stateâs inaugural legal outlet for adult-use cannabis, despite the state governmentâs hesitation on legalization. With around 200,000 eager customers anticipated, this move is expected to boost the EBCIâs economy while potentially lighting a fire under state lawmakers to rethink their stance on cannabis. It's a bold play in a market thatâs not even officially open for businessâyet. The rest of the state might want to take notes.
Major Progress For Epidiolex
Jazz Pharmaceuticals is making waves at the 15th European Epilepsy Congress, presenting data on its flagship cannabis-based drug, Epidyolex. One highlight? A subgroup analysis showing caregivers reporting improvements in both seizure and non-seizure outcomes for Lennox-Gastaut and Dravet syndrome patients using Epidyolex with clobazam. Meanwhile, a post-hoc analysis of clinical trial data identified meaningful reductions in drop seizures, proving its efficacy. With over 2,000 patient experiences, Jazz continues building its case for Epidyolex, positioning it as a key player in epilepsy treatment, while navigating complex regulatory and market landscapes.
THC-0 Has Itâs Day In Court
In a win for hemp advocates, a federal appeals court ruled that THC-O, a synthetic cannabinoid derived from hemp, qualifies as legal under federal law. The DEA had previously classified it as a controlled substance, but the court rejected this restrictive stance, clarifying that hemp-derived cannabinoids remain lawful unless explicitly regulated. This decision adds another layer of complexity to the ever-evolving cannabis legal landscape. For investors and industry insiders, this is yet another indication that the regulatory framework around cannabis is ripe for continual reinterpretation. Buckle upâthis ride is far from over.
đď¸ The News
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Military Veteran Explains Why FDA Declined MDMA | Trade to Black
What we covered:
â In our latest Trade To Black Podcast, Life Science Investor and Military Veteran Matthew âWhizâ Buckley, sheds light on the reasons behind the FDA's decision to decline approval of novel MDMA therapy for treating PTSD, as submitted by Lykos Therapeutics.
In our discussion, we touch on various issues, including the trial's design, execution, and the choice of MDMA as the first primary compound for FDA submission, rather than plant-based compounds like Ibogaine and others.
The trial garnered bipartisan support from 80 congressional members advocating for further studies on MDMA-assisted therapy for PTSD to accelerate access to treatment for veterans grappling with increasing suicide rates.
However, the FDA ultimately determined that they require additional data, leaving many investors in the industry pondering what comes next in the short term.