💸 The Tape

Florida’s adult-use cannabis campaign is back on the ballot trail—literally—only this time it’s running through a political obstacle course with county elections offices as the unwilling referees.

At the center of the latest round is Smart & Safe Florida, the Trulieve-funded initiative attempting to qualify a recreational-use constitutional amendment for the 2026 ballot. If the name sounds familiar, that’s because this is the sequel. In 2024, Florida’s Amendment 3 came close but ultimately failed, landing in the mid-50s—well short of the state’s unusually steep 60% threshold for constitutional amendments. Even a high-profile endorsement from then-presidential nominee Donald Trump wasn’t enough to push it over the line.

Now, the campaign is trying again—and the DeSantis administration appears determined to make sure the “again” part is the story.

Polls, thresholds, and the business of skepticism

Recent polling reported by Florida Politics, including a survey released by the Florida Chamber of Commerce, suggests support for adult-use legalization has softened to about 51%. That’s notable not because 51% is low in a vacuum—it’s actually a winning number in most elections—but because Florida constitutional amendments don’t operate on majority rule. They operate on supermajority rule. In this format, 51% is not “ahead”; it’s “not even in the stadium.”

The Chamber, which opposes legalization, leaned into the narrative that time and money have failed to convert skeptics. Their argument is essentially: more information equals less support—and the proof is the price tag. More than $200 million has been spent across the past two cycles, with the overwhelming majority attributed to Trulieve, the state’s largest medical cannabis operator and the financial engine behind Smart & Safe Florida.

Whether that messaging reflects genuine voter learning, effective opposition advertising, shifting political winds, or simple poll variability is an open question. The Chamber poll reportedly surveyed 602 likely voters with a margin of error of four points—enough statistical wiggle room to matter, not enough to ignore the direction of travel.

The “political war” moves to the elections office

If the polling is the campaign’s headache, the mechanics of ballot qualification may be its migraine. Smart & Safe Florida has until February 1 to collect 880,000 verified signatures. As of the latest reported count, it has roughly 675,000—substantial, but not yet across the finish line.

Enter the state Office of Election Crimes and Security, which notified elections supervisors in three counties that it would audit certain verified petitions to confirm signatures are legitimate and gathered in accordance with state law. On paper, audits are routine governance tools. In practice, the timing and targeting are what determine whether they’re seen as quality control or tactical friction.

One representative for elections supervisors characterized the move as dragging local officials into “a political war,” an unusually blunt phrase that captures the operational reality: county offices become the front line when the state decides to scrutinize the petition process midstream.

Smart & Safe Florida, for its part, is framing the audits as an effort to “stifle the voices” of more than a million Floridians who signed petitions legally. The implicit subtext is not subtle: if you can’t defeat the measure at the ballot box, you try to prevent it from reaching the ballot at all.

A lawsuit about… smell?

Adding to the pile, state officials have also pursued litigation at the Florida Supreme Court, reportedly including arguments that touch on cannabis odor. It’s a detail that feels almost satirical—public policy debated through the lens of nose-level nuisance—but it reflects a real strategic trend in cannabis politics: opponents increasingly argue not just about health and safety, but about quality-of-life externalities that resonate with suburban swing voters.

Trulieve’s split-screen strategy

What makes this Florida story particularly interesting is that Trulieve is simultaneously wrestling with headwinds at home and projecting expansion nationally. The company recently signaled plans to move into Texas, where legislative changes could broaden what has historically been a narrow medical program. It’s an investor-friendly narrative: diversify geographic exposure, de-risk the flagship market, and keep growth options open.

And then there’s the political overlay. Trulieve CEO Kim Rivers has been credited with helping influence Trump’s recent executive order directing the Justice Department to complete marijuana rescheduling—an example of how corporate leadership and federal policy conversations increasingly intersect.

Florida’s adult-use push, in other words, is not just a ballot initiative. It’s a case study in how money, polling, litigation, bureaucracy, and national strategy collide in a state where 51% isn’t victory—it’s merely the opening bid.

🗞️ The News

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One Month After Donald Trump Signed The EO To Reschedule Cannabis | TTB Powered by Flowhub

What we will cover:

✅ One month after the White House executive order directing a fast-track push to move cannabis to Schedule III, host Anthony Varrell is joined by Michael Bronstein (President, ATACH — American Trade Association for Cannabis and Hemp) for a ground-level debrief on what’s actually changed—and what hasn’t—since the announcement.

This episode zeroes in on two major developments shaping the next phase of U.S. cannabis policy: the confirmation of Sara Carter as the nation’s new “Drug Czar” (ONDCP Director) and Virginia’s latest move to finally bring an adult-use retail market online—including a newly filed bill that would establish the legal framework for licensed cultivation, processing, testing, and sales.