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🌊 Germany Is On The Brink

GM Everyone,

Germany is on the precipice of change with its upcoming elections and could be at a major inflection point regarding the growth or stagnation of its current cannabis industry. An initial read suggests a "heads they win, tails they semi-win" scenario—so we'll be watching closely over the coming week. More details below.

A little more than a 6 minute read.

💸 The Tape

Germany’s cannabis industry has the spotlight squarely on the upcoming February 23 federal election, where the left-leaning Social Democratic Union (SDU) aims to keep its foothold against the right-leaning Christian Democratic Union (CDU). Already, foreign investors and domestic operators alike are bracing for potential policy shifts that could revamp, slow, or reverse marijuana reforms introduced under the SDU’s tenure.

Despite polls favoring the CDU, Germany’s cannabis market remains robust, fueled by a recent surge in medical cannabis demand. Flower prices have dropped to record lows—even reaching 3.99 euros a gram—amid a thousand-percent spike in prescriptions. Frankfurt-based Bloomwell Group co-founder Niklas Kouparanis calls these results “the opposite of what we thought,” noting the industry’s readiness to meet rising consumer demand.

Meanwhile, international businesses see Germany as a strategic growth engine. Canada’s biggest operators and U.S. firms like Curaleaf have established footholds, betting on a market that’s expected to surpass an annual supply run rate of 100 tonnes. Juan Martinez, Curaleaf International’s head, insists the brand is doubling down on Germany because it’s “one of the cannabis industry’s critical global markets.”

Thanks to reforms introduced last April, patients now enjoy a far more lenient environment for medical marijuana. Industry consultant Deepak Anand points out that medical prescriptions can be accessed conveniently via telehealth, with consumers then popping into a pharmacy to fulfill their orders. This streamlined approach has accelerated patient enrollment, thereby further enlarging Germany’s medical footprint.

On the recreational side, a Cannabis Act passed last year allows noncommercial social clubs of up to 500 members to grow and share cannabis while also decriminalizing modest personal possession. A pilot program after the election will let select companies and research institutions sell adult-use products. Jamie Pearson of New Holland Group believes that a tax-based retail model could draw foreign tourists, though medical marijuana might still offer Germans a cheaper alternative.

Whether this commercial opportunity picks up steam depends heavily on election outcomes. The CDU, projected to claim power, may tread more conservatively, while the SDU favors advancing legalization. Kouparanis expects the winning party will still need a coalition partner, leaving plenty of room for compromise. For now, Germany’s cannabis sector is bracing for either a green light to expand or a pump of the regulatory brakes. In either scenario, the market’s momentum and appetite for new investment remain undeniable.

📈 Dog Walkers

Aurora Expands Down Under

Aurora Cannabis (Nasdaq: ACB; TSX: ACB) and MedReleaf Australia have just opened the floodgates for wider patient access by eliminating the concession card requirement for IndiMed brand products. Now, any Aussie patient can be prescribed these cannabis offerings, capitalizing on Aurora’s robust international experience. Exec VP Andre Jerome says the move supports prescribers with a more seamless prescribing process. IndiMed, launched in 2021 and ranking top 10 in cannabis flowers, has grown from oils to resin cartridges. This milestone arrives alongside Aurora’s freshly filed short form base shelf prospectus, hinting that the cannabis heavyweight may soon target new capital opportunities to accelerate global growth. Investors will be watching this space.

Russie Releases Another One

Russia just released American traveler Kalob Byers from an unexpected stint behind bars, allegedly triggered by cannabis gummies discovered at Moscow’s Vnukovo airport. Byers’ timely freedom, confirmed by his mother and a U.S. official, seemingly greases the wheels for upcoming Russia-U.S. discussions in Saudi Arabia—talks presumably centering on Ukraine’s conflict and the Hamas-Israel ceasefire. Meanwhile, the Kremlin acknowledges this diplomatic flurry could hint at broader moves to thaw bilateral relations. Byers, 28, had faced drug smuggling charges carrying a possible 10-year sentence. With Western travel to Russia already deemed risky by the State Department, this development underscores the precarious environment for any foreign investor or traveler. Eyeing caution seems prudent.

📺 YouTube

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Invests $1.24B in Constellation: A Cannabis Signal?

What we covered:

✅ Host Shadd Dales breaks down Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway and their $1.2 billion investment in Constellation Brands—owner of Corona and Modelo—and what it could mean for the cannabis industry.

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has taken a major stake in Constellation Brands, despite a challenging year for alcohol stocks. Why? Constellation owns a significant stake in Canopy Growth, a key player in the cannabis industry. If U.S. cannabis laws change, this investment could see major upside.

Berkshire’s 4th-quarter update revealed they acquired 5.6 million shares of Constellation, signaling confidence in its long-term value. Known for disciplined investing, Buffett’s firm is strategically positioning itself in both the beverage industry and, indirectly, the cannabis industry as well.

Trump Administration & Cannabis Rescheduling:

Under Joe Biden, cannabis rescheduling gained momentum but never implemented. However, with Donald Trump back in the White House, momentum is building. Though his past administration was restrictive, sources say Trump now sees cannabis reform as an economic opportunity.