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  • 🫡 Prohibition DOES Not Work 🫡

🫡 Prohibition DOES Not Work 🫡

GM Everyone,

Well, the broad market continues its upward march, with bulls popping out of the woodwork faster than analysts during earnings season. They're declaring we're headed higher across the board as China goes into full stimulus mode and J-Pow (yes, Jerome Powell) starts cutting rates like it's Black Friday. Meanwhile, the cannabis index remains as stagnant as a forgotten houseplant—except for Trulieve, which has made some sustained moves and recaptured that elusive $12 mark yesterday. The only justification for this green surge seems to be the anticipation of Amendment 3 passing. If it does, it could be the rising tide that lifts all boats—at least for the top-shelf operators. This should lead to movement in names like Verano, Curaleaf, and AYR, to name a few.

Today’s letter can be read in 7 minutes and 32 seconds.

💸 High Impact

Tim Walz Leaves Much To Be Said

Well, in the latest chapter of the cannabis chronicles, Vice Presidential candidate Tim Walz has decided to puff, puff, pass his opinion into the ring. He's declared that marijuana legalization is an issue best left to the states—a stance that's about as surprising as finding out that Colorado enjoys skiing. But before we roll our eyes and stash this comment away, let's unpack what this means for the greenbacks in our wallets.

Walz also mentioned that electing Democrats to Congress will boost cannabis reform. Now, that's a nugget worth savoring. From a financial analyst's perspective, this is like hearing that the Federal Reserve might consider sprinkling some extra liquidity into the market. If more Democrats in Congress translate to accelerated cannabis reform, we're looking at a potential gold rush—except this time, the gold is green and grows in fields.

State-level control over legalization means that companies can focus on dominating regional markets without waiting for the federal government to get its act together. Operators should see this as an opportunity to get in on the ground floor in states that are late to the legalization party but have high growth potential. It's akin to investing in a startup before it becomes a unicorn—high risk, but the rewards could be as sweet as a well-cultivated strain.

However, let's not get too hazy-eyed. The patchwork of state regulations can make interstate commerce trickier than navigating a maze after indulging in the product itself. Companies will tailor their strategies to each state's laws, which could increase operational costs and eat into profit margins. But for those firms that can adapt faster than a chameleon in a tie-dye factory, there's market share to be seized.

Walz's comments about boosting cannabis reform with more Democrats in Congress also hint at possible federal legislation down the line. If that happens, the industry could see a unification of regulations, making it easier for companies to scale nationally. Banking restrictions could ease, allowing cannabis companies to access traditional financial services and reduce the risks associated with operating in cash—a safety concern that’s been sticking out like a sore thumb.

But let's be blunt: political promises can be as ephemeral as smoke rings. Investors should keep their expectations grounded. The legislative process moves slower than a caterpillar in molasses, and there's no guarantee that increased Democratic representation will lead to swift action on cannabis reform. There's also the ever-present risk of regulatory backlash or shifts in public opinion.

So, while Tim Walz's stance might not be the silver bullet the industry hopes for, it's certainly a wind change worth noting. His comments were a little confusing to say the least with him completely snubbing any mention of rescheduling and giving very obvious “canned” comments regarding the industry. Something doesn’t smell right with this guy.

📈 Dog Walkers

C3 and NewLake Team Up For Missouri Expansion

Well, it seems C3 Industries is planting the seeds for a growth spurt in Missouri—quite literally. They've expanded their O'Fallon cultivation facility by a whopping 50,000 square feet, courtesy of their ongoing partnership with NewLake Capital Partners. This isn't just any greenhouse upgrade; we're talking state-of-the-art automation and environmental controls that could make a tech CEO blush. President and cofounder Vishal Rungta calls it a "major milestone," and with the ability to shorten plant life cycles from 20 weeks to just 12, it's hard to argue. Their new setup includes six flowering rooms, each capable of hosting over 2,000 plants. If that doesn't get investors' green thumbs twitching, I don't know what will. Full operational capacity is expected by mid-October 2024—just in time to rake in the green.

The Feds Need To Give Cannabis More Attention

Well, it appears the federal government has been playing hooky when it comes to shaping marijuana legalization to protect public health. According to a new government-commissioned report, the feds have been "noticeably missing" from the conversation. While states blaze their own trails—pun intended—the absence of federal guidance creates a regulatory patchwork that's about as cohesive as a mismatched sock drawer. For investors, this inconsistency is the kind of uncertainty that makes markets jittery. Potential tax revenues and public health protections are left hanging in the balance. Perhaps it's high time Uncle Sam steps in to clear the smoke—after all, ignoring a growing multi-billion-dollar industry isn't exactly a high-yield strategy.

4Front Announces Restructuring

Well, 4Front Ventures is bringing in Canaccord Genuity to help consolidate and streamline its capital structure—because who doesn't love a good makeover? They're looking to refinance existing debt and raise fresh growth capital, all while keeping an eye on operational and strategic alternatives. CEO Andrew Thut calls it a "pivotal moment" as they scale their flagship Matteson facility and expand their Mission retail footprint in Illinois. They've also amended their credit facility with Altmore Capital, snagging an extra $850,000—like finding a forgotten stash in an old jacket. To sweeten the pot, they're doubling the RSUs issued to the lender.

👾 Number Of The Day

666,037 The number of eigths sold in Arizona in the month of August.

Data provided by:

🗞️ The News

📺 YouTube

Cannabis Capital Markets 101 with Anthony Coniglio | Trade to Black

What we covered:

On the latetst Trade to Black Podcast! Anthony Coniglio, CEO of NewLake Capital (OTCQX: NLCP), will be joining us.

Topic of conversation includes implications of last week's interest rate reduction for small-cap investors, with a focus on cannabis stocks.

With the Federal Reserve announcing a 50 basis point cut, we’ll discuss and provide examples on how this will impact the financials of cannabis companies, including potential savings on their extended debt balances and tax liabilities, as well as the cash flow generated from these adjustments.

Anthony will also share his take on the possibility of a 50% increase in small-cap stocks by 2025 and what that could mean in the short term.