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The U.S. cannabis sector is bracing for a big week as four major multi-state operators – Green Thumb Industries, Trulieve, Curaleaf, and TerrAscend – are set to report earnings. Investors are craving good news in an industry that’s faced high taxes, falling prices, and regulatory limbo. Will these companies deliver a contact high to investors or leave them in a haze of disappointment? Here’s what to watch, with a witty but businesslike take on each.

Green Thumb Industries: Steady Growth Amid the Grind

Earnings Date: Green Thumb (CSE: GTII, OTC: GTBIF) reports Wednesday, May 7, 2025, after market with a 5:00 p.m. ET conference call.

Green Thumb has earned a reputation as one of the most consistent and profitable U.S. cannabis operators. Last quarter’s results set a high bar: Q4 2024 revenue hit a record $294 million (up ~6% YoY) with a hefty adjusted EBITDA of $98 million – a robust 33% EBITDA. Impressively, Green Thumb also posted a net profit of $13 million in, contributing to a full-year 2024 net income of $73M. Analysts will be watching if Q1 2025 can keep that momentum. Key metrics to monitor include revenue growth (mid-single-digit YoY growth has been the recent) and margin preservation. Green Thumb has navigated price compression by controlling costs – gross margin was about 54% in Q4 – so any slippage in margins might raise eyebrows, especially as “pricing pressures are expected to persist into 2025” per the company’s own outlook.

Also on the radar: footprint expansion. Green Thumb ended last year with 101 retail locations and has since opened a few more (it just hit store #104, including a new RISE dispensary in Florida). Expansion in new markets like Ohio and Virginia is underway – the company plans to invest in store buildouts and renovations in those states this year. Notably, adult-use sales in markets like New Jersey and (soon) Ohio are contributing to growth, helping offset maturation in core markets like Illinois. Green Thumb’s balance sheet is relatively healthy ( ~$172 million in cash on hand as of Q4 and strong operating cash flow), which should allow it to execute growth plans without the need for dilutive financing.

Investor sentiment toward GTI is comparatively optimistic within the sector – it’s seen as a bellwether. The stock is still well below its peak, but it has outperformed many peers, reflecting its profitability. After surging on recent sector news, GTI’s OTC shares trade around the mid-$6 range, and analysts have price targets roughly double that, betting that Green Thumb’s “slow and steady” execution will win the race. If Q1 numbers show continued revenue uptick and stable margins, it will reinforce that narrative. Any commentary on consumer demand or new state launches will also be parsed for hints of “green shoots” in an otherwise challenging climate.

Trulieve: Sunshine State Giant Faces Growing Pains

Earnings Date: Trulieve (CSE: TRUL, OTC: TCNNF) will report Wednesday, May 7, 2025, with a conference call at 8:30 a.m. ET that morning (suggesting results drop pre-market).

Trulieve is the dominant player in Florida’s medical cannabis market, and Florida’s importance cannot be overstated – it’s Trulieve’s crown jewel and profit engine. In 2024, Trulieve’s full-year revenue reached $1.24 billion, up 5% YoY, and it achieved a record adjusted EBITDA of $420 million (35% EBITDA margin). The company added 33 new dispensaries last year, bringing its total to 225 stores across 11 states. Despite those solid operational metrics, Trulieve posted a GAAP net loss of $155 million for 2024 (much of it due to prior impairments), though this was a major improvement from a $527 million loss the year before. Investors are eager to see if profitability is within reach or if further write-downs and integration costs (from its 2021 Harvest acquisition, for example) continue to weigh.

For Q1 2025, Trulieve has guided cautiously: management expects revenue to dip slightly (low single-digit %) sequentially from Q4’s $310 million. That implies Q1 revenue roughly around $300 million. Such a decline might reflect seasonal softness or continued price pressure, but year-over-year growth should still be positive given new store openings. Trulieve also forecasts around 60% gross margin for 2025 – an enviably high level, reflecting its vertical integration and pricing power in Florida. Maintaining that margin will be vital as competition heats up. Florida’s patient count growth has slowed, so Trulieve is banking on efficiency and loyal customer demand to keep margins strong until adult-use potentially expands the pie. The company is targeting $250+ million in operating cash flow this year, signaling confidence in its cash-generation ability (it delivered $271 million in 2024 operating cash flow, which it used to fund expansion and pay down debt).

Analysts will parse any commentary on Florida’s outlook – Trulieve’s CEO Kim Rivers has been outspoken about a ballot initiative to legalize adult use in the Sunshine State. (Rivers recently reaffirmed her bullishness on Florida, calling it “a fantastic market for us” and quipping that she “wouldn’t trade hands with anyone in the industry”) If there are updates on the ballot’s status or Trulieve’s preparations for a post-legalization boom (e.g. store expansion, production capacity), those could be highlights. Additionally, Trulieve’s performance in other states like Pennsylvania and Arizona will be eyed. The company saw 26% wholesale growth in 2024, indicating it’s selling more product through third-party channels outside Florida – a positive sign for diversification.

Despite its operational strengths, investor sentiment around Trulieve has been mixed. The stock has languished in the ~$4-5 range on the OTC, down from double-digits not long ago. Even strong Q4 results failed to spark a sustained rally, underscoring skepticism in the market. However, analysts remain upbeat on the long term – some price targets imply a multi-bagger upside from current levels. In the short term, Trulieve needs to reassure investors that growth hasn’t stalled. Look for any updates on cost-cutting (Trulieve exited California and other weaker markets last year to focus on profitability) and on debt management (balance sheet moves, given interest rates and limited financing options). A witty summary for Trulieve might be: all eyes are on the Florida powerhouse to see if it can blaze ahead despite headwinds, or if its growth high is tapering off. The tone on the earnings call and any 2025 guidance will set the mood.

Curaleaf: Scaling Back to Leap Forward?

Earnings Date: Curaleaf (TSX: CURA, OTC: CURLF) reports Thursday, May 8, 2025, after market close (with a 5:00 p.m. ET conference call that day).

Curaleaf is the largest U.S. cannabis company by revenue and footprint, but “largest” hasn’t meant “fastest-growing” of late. In 2024, Curaleaf’s revenue was flat at $1.34 billion (virtually 0% growth YoY), reflecting a year of portfolio pruning and strategic refocus. The company made a deliberate decision to exit several West Coast markets (like California, Oregon and Colorado) to stem losses, and it doubled down on core states and its European operations. The upside of this strategy showed in Curaleaf’s margins: Q4 2024 adjusted gross margin improved to 48%, up 160 basis points year-over-year, thanks to cost cuts and SKU rationalization. Adjusted EBITDA in Q4 came in at $76 million (23% margin), roughly flat vs. the prior year despite lower sales – a sign that efficiency gains are offsetting revenue pressures. For the full year, Curaleaf’s adjusted EBITDA was about $253 million, and the company ended Q4 with $107 million in cash on hand, giving it a bit of liquidity cushion.

Looking to Q1 2025, Curaleaf management has signaled a mid-single-digit sequential revenue decline. Like Trulieve, Curaleaf appears to be guiding conservatively for the quarter (perhaps expecting ~$315–320 million in Q1 revenue, down from $331M in Q4). Part of this may be seasonal or due to one-off Q4 holiday boosts; part may be ongoing price compression in some markets. Investors will be keen to see if new growth engines can fire up later in 2025. Curaleaf specifically pointed to New York and Ohio as “burgeoning markets” it is focusing on. New York’s adult-use rollout has been slow and fraught with regulatory hiccups, but Curaleaf, as a major medical operator there, stands to gain once the market opens fully. (Regulators have been gradually allowing existing medical dispensaries to start recreational sales; any commentary on timing here will be significant.) In Ohio, voters approved adult-use cannabis in late 2023, and sales are expected to begin sometime in 2025 – Curaleaf already operates in Ohio’s medical market, so it’s positioning to capitalize on the recreational launch when it happens.

Curaleaf is also unique among these four in its international presence. It generated about $31 million in Q4 from its European segment, and it has been introducing new brands in Germany and the UK. While still a small slice of the pie, international growth is part of management’s narrative to investors. Expect updates on its UK stores or German distribution as part of the earnings discussion, especially given Europe’s own regulatory evolution.

From an investor sentiment perspective, Curaleaf’s stock has had a rough ride – it’s trading near $1 on the OTC market after a ~80-90% slide from early 2021 highs. Year-to-date in 2025 it was down about 22% by March, though late April’s sector bounce lifted it off all-time lows. Interestingly, some analysts see significant upside, with price targets in the $2.70 to $4.80 range, implying the market is undervaluing Curaleaf’s scale and improved operations. For that optimism to be realized, Curaleaf needs to show that flatlining revenue will turn to growth again – likely via new state markets (NY, OH) or federal reform enabling expansion. The company has trimmed the fat; now it must prove it can reignite growth organically, as it has guided a capex-light strategy for 2025 focusing on existing assets. If CEO Matt Darin (and influential Executive Chairman Boris Jordan) can convey a credible path forward on the call – one that balances discipline with expansion – investors may start to believe Curaleaf can scale new heights again. In short, Curaleaf is in “prove it” mode: it has done the cost-cutting; now the street wants to see revenue catalysts on the horizon.

TerrAscend: Small Player, Big Focus on Profit

Earnings Date: TerrAscend (TSX: TSND, OTC: TSNDF) reports Thursday, May 8, 2025, after market close (conference call at 5:00 p.m. ET, coinciding with Curaleaf’s call).

TerrAscend may be the smallest of the four, but it’s arguably the most financially disciplined. The company has been laser-focused on generating cash and optimizing its footprint. In 2024, TerrAscend’s net revenue was $306.7 million, a slight 3.3% decline from 2023 as the company pruned non-core operations (it exited the Canadian market entirely, classifying it as discontinued ops). Despite flat revenue in Q4 2024 at $74.4 million, TerrAscend achieved a 50.2% gross margin in the quarter – among the highest in the industry – and delivered adjusted EBITDA of $15.1 million (20.3% margin). Notably, Q4 adjusted EBITDA was up from $13.7M in Q3, showing sequential improvement even amid price pressures. For the full year, adjusted EBITDA came in at $60.7 million (19.8% margin). Perhaps most impressive: TerrAscend has now logged 10 consecutive quarters of positive operating cash flow, and 6 straight of positive free cash flow – a metric few cannabis operators can claim. In 2024 it generated $38 million in cash from operations and $29 million in free cash flow, money that has helped fund growth projects and reduce debt.

Analysts and investors will look for TerrAscend to maintain this prudent trajectory in Q1 2025. Don’t expect blockbuster revenue growth – TerrAscend’s strategy is more about profitable growth in select markets. It operates in five states (Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland, Michigan, and California) and is entering a sixth (Ohio) via a recent acquisition of a profitable dispensary. New Jersey has been a star market: TerrAscend holds the #1 market share in NJ and all three of its Apothecarium dispensaries rank in the top 10 statewide. Maryland was another bright spot, growing from negligible revenue in early 2023 to a Q4 2024 run-rate of $70+ million after adult-use launched. We can infer that Q1 2025 will show continued strong sales in MD (possibly further sequential growth as that market expands). Pennsylvania remains medical-only but is profitable; management has hinted at excitement for PA’s potential adult-use legalization down the line. On the flip side, Michigan has been a drag – the oversupplied Michigan market forced TerrAscend to record a $45 million impairment in Q4, contributing to a GAAP net loss that quarter. Investors will listen for any plans to turn around or further write down the Michigan business to stop the bleeding. TerrAscend’s California presence is relatively small (focused on a premium brand and one dispensary) and not a big factor in its financials.

A few items to watch in the earnings update: TerrAscend’s capital allocation and growth investments. The company has signaled it will keep 2025 capex low – roughly $10 million – only investing in high-return projects (such as expanding cultivation in New Jersey to meet booming demand). It also successfully raised non-dilutive financing in late 2024, leveraging $150M of owned real estate to push out debt maturities to 2028. This means near-term liquidity is sufficient and dilution risk is lower, which shareholders appreciate. Given these moves, TerrAscend’s leadership (Executive Chairman Jason Wild and CEO Ziad Ghanem) exude confidence. “The business performed ahead of our expectations in the fourth quarter,” Wild noted, highlighting the strong cash flow and market share gains. The team believes they can “drive operational efficiencies and growth…while judiciously pursuing expansion opportunities at increasingly attractive prices” – a hint that they may be eyeing M&A or new licenses selectively, taking advantage of distressed asset valuations in the industry.

In terms of stock performance, TerrAscend’s TSX listing (as TSND) in mid-2023 made it one of the first U.S.-plant-touching operators on a major exchange. The stock saw an initial pop but has since been weighed down by the sector’s gloom; it trades around the mid-single digits (in CAD) – not immune to the broader malaise. However, if any company is positioned to impress fundamentally, it might be TerrAscend due to its sustainable approach. Investors will likely reward even modest growth if it comes with stable or improving profitability. A witty way to frame TerrAscend: it’s the little engine that could – not the biggest, but grinding out cash flow quarter after quarter, proving that slow and steady (with an eye on the bottom line) wins at least some kudos in the cannabis race.

Bottom Line: This week’s earnings could set the tone for the U.S. cannabis sector’s next chapter. Each of these companies faces the same macro challenges – federal uncertainty, pricing pressure, and investor wariness – but each is forging its own path through the weeds. Green Thumb will tout consistency, Trulieve will lean on Florida’s fortress, Curaleaf will pitch its refocused strategy, and TerrAscend will show off its scrappy profitability. In a business newsletter full of high-stakes earnings, expect a blend of hard numbers and hopeful commentary. Investors will be parsing every metric and guidance snippet for signs of a turnaround or further turbulence. As the saying (almost) goes, when the going gets tough, the tough get growing – and we’re about to see just how green these companies’ thumbs really are.

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Trump’s DEA Nominee Signals Cannabis Rescheduling Shift | Trade to Black

What we will cover:

✅ Host Shadd Dales breaks down the growing momentum behind marijuana rescheduling under the Trump administration—and why it could mark a historic turning point for the cannabis industry.

President Trump has made it clear: he wants cannabis rescheduled. That message is now resonating throughout his cabinet, including with his nominee to lead the DEA, Terry Cole. Once known for a hardline stance on drug enforcement, Cole now says reviewing marijuana’s classification will be one of his “first priorities” if confirmed—signaling a dramatic shift from ideology to science.

For decades, cannabis policy has been driven by fear and stigma. But this time, the conversation is shifting. Cole emphasized during his confirmation hearing that the decision must be based on data, not political bias—echoing the Trump administration’s push to align cannabis scheduling with current medical evidence.