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😆 Just Another Manic Monday 😆

Author

Anthony Varrell
June 17, 2024

GM Everyone,

It's Monday morning, you're here, you're heavily caffeinated, and hopefully ready for another week to roll with the punches the cannabis sector seems to continuously be serving up. Last week was a rollercoaster, mostly to the negative side, so hopefully, we can get some headlines with a little positive energy in them this week.

And they're off!

Today’s letter can be read in 8 minutes and 42 seconds.

What's Driving the Market Today?

Stock futures are flat across the board, here is what traders are focused on today:

  • French political turmoil pressures euro, widens bond spreads.

  • Chinese housing slump deepens; new home prices drop again.

  • Japan’s Nikkei falls below 38,000 amid economic concerns.

  • U.S. dollar strengthens, buoyed by global uncertainties.

💸 High Impact

We Are Halfway Home

The What - This week marks some relevant dates in the process currently underway to reschedule cannabis. The two dates in focus this week are 6/20, which is the deadline to request a hearing, and 6/22, which is essentially the halfway point for the comment period.

On the national level, we have not seen too many people rear their ugly heads regarding full-blown opposition to rescheduling. The likes of SAM (Smart Approaches to Marijuana) have stuck to their guns on their approach to continue peddling their message lacking actual substance and data, and for the most part, it has fallen flat. We have seen more organized opposition at the state level by Ronny D than from the likes of SAM, which is fantastic.

As of this morning, the Federal Register has 18,369 comments, with the vast majority being in favor of rescheduling, as it makes common sense. The velocity of comments has slowed after the first week, but we are still marching right towards my guess, which was 22,000 overall, and I’m sure we’ll eclipse that. Have you done your part and left your mark on the Federal Register? If not, here is the link to perform your civic duty.

The Why? - I chose to cover the midpoint in the rescheduling process because, as of last week, it's starting to feel like max pain in this sector among investors, and I am not surprised in the least bit. The comment period was going to create a lull in any momentum we had, and to top it off, it's smack dab in the middle of summer, which, if you believe in “sell in May and go away,” you shouldn't be surprised by the tape.

From a stock perspective, we are floating down week over week in terms of pricing, and it's not due to people selling; it's due to a complete lack of buyers in the market, which I cannot blame them for. I chose to stay out of the market for the most part going into the comment period; the only position I have picked up was $AAWH @ $1, and it's down modestly since.

I don't think we get any kind of reprieve from the declining price action we have seen until we get out of the comment period and have clear direction on what the pace of this process is truly going to look like. Pablo had a pretty bullish spaces last week on the matter with guests from Dentons, USCC, and Cresco that were fairly certain the final rule would be set in stone before November. That would be freaking nice.

📈 Dog Walkers 

Michigan April Numbers

Cannabis sales in Michigan were up 16.4% year-over-year to $278 million and basically flat quarter-over-quarter. The Wolverine State continues to pump out impressive nine-figure top-line numbers on a monthly basis and has stabilized after some turbulence shortly after the market came online. The growth has been impressive thus far with one caveat: their neighbors to the south in Ohio are turning on adult use, which could impact some cross-border sales going forward.

South Dakota Hates Cannabis

Several South Dakota organizations are urging voters to cast their vote against the legalization of marijuana, including the Republican Party of South Dakota and the Catholic Diocese of Sioux Falls (go figure). The surprising number here is that 52% of registered voters are against the measure, which might be the first time I have seen a state with the majority against actions towards legalization.

🔢 Number O.T.D.

$22,800,000,000

That is the number of total market cap for U.S. listed bitcoin miners as of this morning.

🗞️ The News

📭 Research

Initiating Coverage: Green Thumb Industries - Download Here

Reconfirming Buy Rating: MariMed - Download Here

Initiating Coverage Of Verano Holdings Corp. - Download Here

Initiating Coverage: Trulieve Cannabis - Download Here

📺 YouTube

Would We Buy These Five Small Cap Stocks?

What we covered:

✅ Aduro Clean Technologies (CSE:ACT, OTCQX:ACTHF) is based in Sarnia, Ontario, Canada, and is focuses on developing chemical recycling technologies to convert waste into valuable resources.

✅ AgEagle Aerial Systems (NYSE: UAVS) AgEagle Aerial Systems Inc., based in Wichita, Kansas, provides advanced autonomous drone solutions.

✅ Adcore Inc (TSX: ADCO, OTCQX: ADCOF) Adcore Inc. is an AI-powered marketing technology company that offers digital marketing tools to streamline and automate the marketing process for businesses globally.

✅ AKITA Drilling (TSX: AKT.A, OTC: AKTAF) is a leading intermediate North American land drilling contractor with a fleet of 36 high-spec drilling rigs operating in major resource basins in Canada and the US.

✅ TerrAscend (TSX:TSND, OTCQX:TSNDF) runs 38 dispensaries across five U.S. states—California, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Maryland, and New Jersey—and maintains a retail presence in Canada. Its vertically integrated business model encompasses seven U.S. cultivation and production facilities.