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Happy July 4th!

Happy July 4th!

William McNarland & Anthony Varrell
July 04, 2024

GM Everyone,

Yesterday served as a reminder that headlines in today’s day and age can be very misleading. In a conversation with the top cannabis lawyer in the country, it was outlined to us that the noise generated over the past 48 hours is just that—noise. Rescheduling is still on track and will indeed happen. This is why we continue to urge this industry to stop fixating on every single small detail in every headline seen and read. This trend seems to persist in this industry, reflecting another chapter in how we struggle to propel this industry forward. The anti-legalization crowd aims to delay rescheduling until a possible return of a Trump administration. However, whether it’s Trump, Biden, or any other administration in office next year, the train has left the station, and rescheduling will occur regardless of who is leading America. Speaking of America, happy Independence Day, everyone.

Today’s letter can be read in 7 minutes and 22 seconds.

What's Driving the Market Today?

The US market is closed today, but here is what is driving the action overseas:

Softer US data boosts bets on a September Fed rate cut.
UK election likely to result in a Labour landslide victory.
Potential for Liberal Democrats to become main opposition in UK.
FTSE steady; sterling near three-week high.
Japan's Topix index and Taiwan's main index hit record highs.

💸 High Impact

Two Legal Opinions on Cannabis Regulation

The What : The Supreme Court decision overturning the Chevron defense has sparked significant discussion within the cannabis industry, raising concerns about its impact on the ongoing rescheduling process. In yesterday’s episode of “Trade to Black” podcast, host Shadd Dales discussed these issues with legal experts Eric Berlin from Dentons and Darren Weiss, President of Verano Holdings, who is also a lawyer and previously served as Verano general counsel. The goal was to hash out the details.

The Highlights :

“I believe Shane Pennington said it best; the rumors of the death of rescheduling are greatly exaggerated,” stated Eric Berlin, addressing widespread concerns about the Supreme Court’s decision. Despite the ruling, Berlin emphasized that the rescheduling process would continue largely unaffected. He further clarified, “The courts need not defer to an agency’s interpretation of the law, regardless of that ambiguity. That is under the Administrative Procedures Act.”

Darren Weiss echoed this sentiment, noting, "The impact on the rescheduling efforts is quite minimal, and in fact, it can be helpful both with the current rescheduling and as it relates to additional challenges to the extent that we hit a schedule three or otherwise." Weiss also pointed out that anti-legalization groups are stalling to delay decisions until a potential Trump administration.

Read about it or watch the full interview at this link:

📈 Dog Walkers

Gross Margin Profit Trends in the US MSO Cannabis Market

The US Multi-State Operator (MSO) cannabis market has shown slight improving trends in gross profit margins over the last year. Here are some observations:

Average Margin: The average gross profit margin for US MSOs was 43.4%, with a median of 44.8% over the last twelve months.
Improvement: Compared to the previous 12-month period, where the average was 43.4%, and the median was 44.3%, there was only a slight improvement industry-wide.
Industry Ranking: The table below ranks the top-performing MSOs by gross profit margin. A higher margin reflects better profitability and cost efficiency.

Governor Wes Moore on Maryland’s $1.1B Cannabis Milestone

What happened: Governor Wes Moore commented on Maryland's cannabis industry reaching a $1.1 billion milestone in sales.

History: Maryland legalized medical cannabis in 2014, and recreational cannabis sales began on July 1, 2023.

Why it matters: Reaching the $1.1 billion milestone highlights the significant economic impact of the cannabis industry in Maryland.

What is next: Maryland plans to continue expanding its cannabis market and ensuring it remains regulated and accessible.

Joe Biden Replacement Meme-coins Soar as Dropout Speculation Rises

After a New York Times report, speculation about President Joe Biden’s potential 2024 withdrawal surged, causing Polymarket odds to jump from 55% to 80%.
White House spokesperson addressed the rumors, stating that the New York Times story is false.