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👀 The Capital Markets Are Alive 👀

GM Everyone,

We have all speculated on the theme of consolidation for some time, and yesterday we got our first glimpse with the announcement from Vireo Growth. The equity raise at a premium to the share price was a bit surprising at face value, but it does reinforce the notion of a disconnect between public equity valuations and the underlying business fundamentals. More on this below, and we look forward to seeing more of this activity in 2025.

A little more than a 8 minute read.

💸 The Tape

OGI Reports Q4

Organigram’s Fiscal 2024 performance reads like a victory lap for a Canadian cannabis heavyweight seizing prime industry turf. The company’s adjusted EBITDA surged 55% over the prior year’s comparable period, capping off a twelve-month run that saw steady revenue gains and improved efficiency. In the fourth quarter alone, net revenue rose 10% from the previous quarter and a healthy 22% year-over-year, while adjusted EBITDA ballooned to $5.9 million—quite a leap from a near negligible $0.1 million a year ago.

Post-acquisition of Motif Labs, Organigram leapt from Canada’s silver medal position straight to the #1 licensed producer by market share. The end result? A 37% adjusted gross margin in Q4, courtesy of dialed-in cultivation, manufacturing, and distribution efficiencies. Add in $9.1 million in annual cost savings and you’ve got a well-oiled operation humming along nicely.

But Organigram didn’t rest on domestic laurels. The company broadened its international horizons, growing its global supply partners from five to eight, and enjoying sequential sales growth abroad all year. To sweeten the pot, it invested $21 million in Germany’s Sanity Group—a strategic play aiming to tap the EU’s budding markets—and worked to secure EU-GMP certification following a November 2024 audit at its Moncton facility. Once certified, that stamp of approval could translate to higher-margin export revenue.

On the balance sheet front, Organigram bulked up its financial muscle, closing two tranches (worth $83.1 million) of a hefty $124.6 million follow-on investment from a British American Tobacco subsidiary. Another $41.5 million tranche is on deck for February 2025. Throw in a $28.8 million overnight marketed offering from earlier in the year, and you’ve got a company flush with fresh capital at a time when cannabis funding has been anything but plentiful.

CEO Beena Goldenberg called Fiscal 2024 “transformative,” highlighting how these strategic moves—seed-based tech investments, automation upgrades, and stronger global relationships—position Organigram for growth in a crowded marketplace. The underlying message for investors? Organigram isn’t just keeping pace with the industry’s ups and downs; it’s leveraging scarce capital, savvy M&A, and operational know-how to emerge as a top player. Bottom line: This LP’s got the momentum and the margin gains to back it up, as it heads into 2025 poised for even bigger harvests.

📈 Dog Walkers

Vireo Raises And Expands

Vireo Growth is positioning itself for a multi-state expansion that should catch investors’ eyes. The cannabis firm secured $75 million in equity financing at $0.625 per share (which was a huge premium to the previous days closing SP), and simultaneously inked deals to acquire four single-state operators. These all-stock transactions—totaling roughly $397 million—would stretch Vireo’s footprint across seven states: Florida, Missouri, Nevada, and Utah join its existing roster. The result? More than one million square feet of cultivation and manufacturing space spread over nine facilities, plus 48 retail dispensaries.

With these acquisitions, Vireo gains not just scale but also proprietary tech, notably the “Arches” delivery and analytics platform. Management projects proforma 2024 revenue and EBITDA of $394 million and $94 million, respectively. Post-transaction, the balance sheet should look lean, sporting about $99 million in cash and a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio near 0.8x. Finally, top leadership shuffles see seasoned hands—John Mazarakis as CEO and Co-Executive Chairman, and Tyson Macdonald as CFO—steering this growth ship.

Compass Gets Recognition

Compass Pathways is about to join the big leagues. Effective before the bell on December 23, 2024, this mental health-focused biotech is stepping into the NASDAQ Biotechnology Index (NBI). For investors, that’s like being invited into an exclusive investment club where only the top biotech and pharma kids get to play. To qualify, companies must meet strict criteria—think respectable market caps and steady trading volumes—so Compass Pathways’ inclusion here signals it’s not just another lab coat in the crowd.

The NBI isn’t some sleepy, static benchmark either; it’s reconstituted annually, meaning the guest list is regularly vetted for quality and performance. For Compass, landing a spot could translate into broader exposure, potentially juicier liquidity, and a place in more institutional portfolios that track the index. All in all, December 23 could be the perfect holiday gift for investors betting on Compass Pathways’ innovative approach to mental health treatments.

Pro Cannabis Witness Request Is Denied

A DEA administrative law judge just dealt a setback to a cannabis research firm, turning down a late request to add a young medical marijuana patient as a star witness in an upcoming rescheduling hearing. Cannabis Bioscience International Holdings (CBIH) attempted to enlist Alexis Bortell, a patient with a compelling story about how cannabis has helped her epilepsy. But the judge was unimpressed by the last-minute scramble, citing no “good cause” for the tardy request. CBIH’s plea, he said, smacked of improvisation—no medical docs, just anecdotal evidence—and violated the established one-witness-per-party rule.

While this ruling shuts the door on a potentially emotional testimonial, it’s not the only procedural drama playing out. The judge also noted that DEA bungled its subpoenas for FDA officials, but granted the agency a mulligan. Meanwhile, an industry group wants clarity on whether it can cross-examine DEA in these hearings. The tension thickens as rescheduling debate heats up.

🗞️ The News

📺 YouTube

Cannabis 2025: Industry's Future Debated | Trade to Black

What we covered:

✅ On our latest Trade To Black podcast, Anthony Coniglio, CEO of NewLake Capital (OTCQB: NLCP), joins us to talk about the current state of the cannabis industry and what trends we can expect in 2025

Currently, stocks like Trulieve (OTC: TCNNF), Curaleaf (OTC: CURLF), and Verano Holdings (OTC: VRNOF) are considered leading cannabis companies in the industry but are experiencing 52-week lows.

The cannabis industry has faced hard times since election night on November 5th when Donald Trump became the 47th President of the United States. Even though Trump endorsed Amendment 3 in Florida, which would have legalized recreational cannabis, the amendment failed to pass with Governor Ron DeSantis playing a huge role in it, and marijuana stocks have since fallen more than 50% in the past 6 weeks.

On the flip side, over the past 48 hours, both South Carolina and Wisconsin announced a marijuana framework for 2025, and Ohio's adult-use cannabis will fully kick in Q1 2025.