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  • 👀 Biden Looks To Be On His Way Out 👀

👀 Biden Looks To Be On His Way Out 👀

Author

Anthony Varrell
July 18, 2024

GM Everyone,

Biden is under siege from within the Democratic Party as well as some members of his cabinet, reports show. This is bullish for cannabis as I believe replacing him will force them to pull every lever possible to try and muster up momentum, and expeditiously implementing the final rule for Schedule 3 could be one of those levers. This political turmoil could not be coming at a more opportune time with the comment period expiring in the next 4 days, so buckle up.

Today’s letter can be read in 8 minutes and 12 seconds.

What's Driving the Market Today?

Nasdaq futures are rising as the benchmark attempts to recover from its worst day since 2022.

  • TSMC earnings beat lifts semiconductor shares

  • Russell 2000 outperforms Nasdaq; biggest gain since 1979.

  • U.S. chip curbs on China shake sector; Nvidia drops 7%.

  • Global stocks mixed; Nikkei down 2.2% on yen intervention fears.

  • ECB meeting today; expected to keep policy unchanged, signaling future cuts.

💸 High Impact

Gov. Beshear Submits

The What - Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear has advocated for rescheduling medical cannabis from Schedule I to Schedule III under the Controlled Substance Act. In a letter to the DEA, Beshear expressed his alignment with the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services' recommendation, underscoring the medical benefits of marijuana and its potential as an alternative to opioids. This push for rescheduling is timely, following the legalization of medical cannabis in Kentucky last year with the passing of Senate Bill 47.

Governor Beshear's call for rescheduling comes as the Kentucky Medical Cannabis Program begins to regulate the cultivation, production, sale, and use of medical marijuana. By moving medical cannabis to Schedule III, it would officially acknowledge its medical uses and open pathways for further research and safer access. “The jury is no longer out on marijuana: it has medical uses and is currently being used for medical purposes,” Governor Beshear wrote, emphasizing the established benefits of medical cannabis.

The rescheduling effort is not just about recognizing medical uses but also about providing a viable alternative to opioids, a critical concern in the ongoing opioid crisis. Beshear highlighted this point by stating, “For communities, rescheduling means legal medical cannabis programs continue to provide a secure alternative to illicit and unregulated markets, further reducing crime and abuse.” This aligns with the broader objective of improving access to safe cannabis products and reducing dependency on opioids.

The Why - In Kentucky, the implementation of Senate Bill 47 has led to the establishment of a comprehensive regulatory framework. The Kentucky Medical Cannabis Program is actively accepting applications for cannabis business licenses, signaling the state's commitment to a structured and regulated cannabis industry. This is crucial for ensuring the availability of safe and controlled medical cannabis products to patients in need.

Governor Beshear's support for rescheduling has garnered widespread and bipartisan backing. He noted, “The recognition is overwhelming – and bipartisan. For example, I signed a medical marijuana law that passed with support from Republican legislative supermajorities and a Democratic Governor.” This bipartisan support is a testament to the growing consensus on the medical uses of marijuana and the need for a controlled and regulated approach to its distribution and use.

The potential impact of rescheduling medical cannabis extends beyond Kentucky. It reflects a national trend towards recognizing the medical benefits of cannabis and integrating it into healthcare systems as a legitimate treatment option. The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services’ recommendation for rescheduling is a significant step in this direction, and Governor Beshear's advocacy adds weight to the call for change.

Big Takeaway

The timing here could not have been more convenient as we saw events unfold later in the day. In the news cycle yesterday, things started to really roll over in the afternoon with stories leaking about Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer asking Joe Biden to step down. This was followed by a cryptic headline, "President Biden would consider stepping down if faced with a medical issue," which had us all scratching our heads. Then, bam, it breaks that he has Covid.

Pretty bizarre if you ask me, but there is one thing that I think is for certain at this point: Joe Biden is going to be replaced at the top of the ticket, and Andy Beshear could be the potential VP to run or even find himself at the top of the ticket (VERY unlikely) when Joe drops. If we see a Kamala swap in the coming weeks, expect cannabis stocks to rally, but the duration of the rally is yet to be determined. Kamala would be the best-case scenario for cannabis, but once reality sets in, I think it will be apparent that she in no way could beat Trump in an actual election.

This just keeps getting more and more fun, doesn’t it?

📈 Dog Walkers

PA Will Get Done Eventually……..

I had a call yesterday with someone deeply involved in the Pennsylvania process, and this is how they spelled it out. Pennsylvania is not a matter of if but a matter of when. That being said, the Street/Laughlin bill is very real but still needs a champion to pick it up and bring it over the goal line. The timeline for this getting done is also very up in the air; the best-case scenario would be Q4 of this year, and a realistic scenario would be Q1 of 2025, pending the scheduling of the legislative sessions for 2025, which have not been released yet.

As it relates to the rhetoric around a “state-controlled” cannabis industry in PA, that is not going to happen and has been brought up by a very small fringe sect within the government that has zero traction. So that crisis is averted, as it makes little to no sense and would spell disaster for the current operators.

The Big Apple Is Starting To Shine

A significant illegal cannabis bust in New York City's Throgs Neck area resulted in the seizure of $1 million in unlicensed products, highlighting the city's commitment to enforcing cannabis regulations. Part of "Operation Padlock to Protect," the raid involved NYC's Sheriff’s Joint Compliance Taskforce, NYPD, and the NYC Sheriff's Office.

The Empire State keeps making progress but the questions is are they making progress at a rate quicker than the illicit market is growing. That is yet to be determined and we are looking closely at the monthly numbers being reported from the legal market to show signs of life.

Nevada Leaders Plan Pop-Up Cannabis Lounges in Las Vegas

Nevada leaders are exploring the launch of pop-up cannabis lounges in Las Vegas. These temporary establishments aim to provide safe and regulated spaces for cannabis consumption. This would be a pretty interesting experiment to see as it would lead to more experiential cannabis events if sucessful and a market like Las Vegas would be prime to for this.

🗞️ The News

📭 Research

Initiating Coverage: Green Thumb Industries - Download Here

Reconfirming Buy Rating: MariMed - Download Here

Initiating Coverage Of Verano Holdings Corp. - Download Here

Initiating Coverage: TerrAscend - Download Here

📺 YouTube

Which Five Small Cap Stocks Would We Buy?

What we covered:

✅ On this episode of the Trade to Black podcast with our politically connected special guest and lobbyist, Don Murphy. Don will join us from the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin and will update us on what he’s hearing about rescheduling and the SAFER Banking Act. Don will also share his take on how J.D. Vance running for Vice President could influence views on Marijuana rescheduling and the SAFER Banking Act.

Also, TDR Trade to Black podcast hosts Shadd Dales and Anthony Varrell discuss the recent marijuana stock and regulatory news of the week, including an update on Pennsylvania.