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  • ✨ A sector full of stars, waiting for another Constellation to form

✨ A sector full of stars, waiting for another Constellation to form

GM Everyone,

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💸 The Tape

Before there were DEA registration portals and Schedule III final orders, there was a press release that changed everything — even if the industry wasn't ready for what came next.

In August 2018, Constellation Brands — the Fortune 500 beverage giant behind Corona, Modelo, and Robert Mondavi — announced a $4 billion investment in Canopy Growth, taking a 38% equity stake in what was then the largest cannabis company in the world by market capitalization. It was the single largest corporate investment in cannabis history, and it sent a signal that reverberated far beyond the sector: big money believed cannabis was going mainstream.

The stock market responded accordingly. Canopy's share price surged. The entire Canadian cannabis sector caught fire. Valuations across the board inflated to levels that, in hindsight, had no connection to underlying fundamentals. Tilray briefly traded above $300 per share. Companies with modest revenues commanded multi-billion-dollar market caps. The Constellation deal didn't just validate cannabis — it created a speculative frenzy that would take years to unwind.

Too Early, Too Expensive, Too Important

Constellation's bet was directionally correct and catastrophically early. The thesis was sound: cannabis would eventually be normalized, consumption would shift away from alcohol toward cannabinoids, and the company that controlled distribution infrastructure and brand-building expertise would dominate the emerging market. CEO Rob Sands explicitly framed the investment as a long-term play on the convergence of cannabis and beverages.

The problem was timing. Canadian legalization had just launched, the regulatory framework was still being built, retail store rollouts were painfully slow, and the U.S. federal market — where the real commercial prize sat — remained entirely closed. Constellation was investing in a Canadian company with Canadian revenue in a Canadian market that was a fraction of the size needed to justify the valuation.

What followed was a slow-motion correction. Canopy burned through cash at an astonishing rate, cycled through multiple CEOs, wrote down billions in assets, and watched its stock price collapse from its highs. Constellation eventually wrote down its investment by more than $2 billion, and the partnership that was supposed to define the future of cannabis-meets-beverages became a cautionary tale about the gap between vision and execution.

But here's what gets lost in the post-mortem: Constellation was right about the thesis. Cannabis consumption has grown steadily. Alcohol consumption has declined. THC beverages are now sold at Target, Navy Pier, and major U.S. arenas. The substitution effect between cannabis and alcohol that Constellation identified in 2018 is now supported by multiple peer-reviewed studies and measurable consumer behavior data.

The investment failed financially. But as a signal of where the market was heading, it was prescient.

Why Constellation Mattered Beyond the Balance Sheet

The importance of the Constellation deal wasn't just the dollars — it was the permission structure it created. When a Fortune 500 company with a $38 billion market cap writes a $4 billion check into cannabis, it tells every other major corporation that the sector is worth serious consideration. Board rooms that had never discussed cannabis suddenly had it on the agenda. Investment banks started covering the space. Institutional capital began — tentatively — flowing in.

The deal also exposed the structural barriers that prevented other major players from following. U.S. federal prohibition under Schedule I meant that American companies faced enormous legal and reputational risk from direct cannabis involvement. Banks, pharmaceutical companies, tobacco firms, and consumer packaged goods giants all watched from the sidelines — interested but unwilling to move while cannabis remained in the same legal category as heroin.

That barrier just fell.

Schedule III Changes the Calculus

The April 2026 rescheduling order — moving state-licensed medical cannabis from Schedule I to Schedule III — doesn't just eliminate 280E taxes and create DEA registration pathways. It removes the single most significant obstacle that has kept major corporate players out of the cannabis industry: the reputational and legal risk of associating with a Schedule I substance.

Schedule III is the classification that includes ketamine, anabolic steroids, and Tylenol with codeine. Pharmaceutical companies manufacture Schedule III substances every day. Hospitals administer them. Insurance companies cover them. The compliance infrastructure is well understood, and no Fortune 500 board is going to lose sleep over involvement with a Schedule III product the way they would with Schedule I.

For big alcohol, the incentive structure is particularly compelling. The same Statistics Canada data that showed cannabis sales rising 6.1% while alcohol purchases declined 1.6% reflects a trend that beverage executives have been watching nervously for years. Younger consumers are choosing THC seltzers over beer. Cannabis-infused beverages are showing up in mainstream retail. And the substitution effect isn't theoretical anymore — it's measurable and accelerating.

Companies like Constellation, Molson Coors (which already operates cannabis beverage joint ventures in Canada), and AB InBev all have the distribution networks, brand-building expertise, and retail relationships to enter the U.S. cannabis beverage market at scale. What they've lacked is the federal framework that makes participation legally defensible. Schedule III begins to provide that.

Pharma and Tobacco Are Watching Too

The pharmaceutical industry has even more direct incentive. Schedule III creates a regulatory pathway for FDA-approved cannabis drug products and opens the door to clinical research using actual state-available medical cannabis — not the substandard federally grown material that has hampered studies for decades. Companies like British American Tobacco — which has been steadily building its position in Organigram through preferred shares with escalating conversion rights — are already moving.

BAT's methodical approach to Organigram looks increasingly like a template: use preferred equity to build economic exposure while staying below voting thresholds, fund international expansion, and wait for the regulatory environment to mature before converting to full ownership. Other tobacco and pharmaceutical companies are almost certainly running similar playbooks behind closed doors.

The Next Constellation Moment

The cannabis industry has been waiting eight years for a sequel to the Constellation deal. The conditions that could trigger one are now more favorable than at any point since 2018 — arguably more favorable than they were then.

Schedule III is real. DEA registration is live. Over 400 operators have already filed applications. The broader rescheduling hearing begins June 29. And the consumer trend that Constellation identified — the migration from alcohol to cannabis — has only strengthened.

The difference between 2018 and 2026 is that the federal framework is finally catching up to the market reality. Constellation was right about the destination. They were just early on the journey.

The next Fortune 500 company to write a multi-billion-dollar check into cannabis won't be making the same bet Constellation made. They'll be making a better one — with a federal framework that actually supports it, a consumer trend that's been validated, and a regulatory environment that no longer treats their investment as trafficking.

The question isn't whether it happens. It's who moves first.

📈 Dog Walkers

$CGC ( ▼ 5.55% ) Forced To Refile

The company disclosed that during its year-end financial reporting process for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026, it identified a technical non-cash accounting error involving certain share-settled warrants with U.S. dollar-denominated exercise prices. Because Canopy's functional currency is the Canadian dollar, those warrants should have been classified as liabilities rather than equity instruments under applicable accounting standards, with changes in fair value flowing through the income statement.

The result: Canopy will restate financial results for fiscal years 2024 and 2025 alongside its fiscal 2026 release, now scheduled for June 15, 2026. The company has also voluntarily applied for a management cease trade order (MCTO), restricting trading by certain directors and officers until the restatement is complete.

Canopy was emphatic that the error changes nothing about the underlying business. The restatement is not expected to affect revenue, gross margin, operating income, cash flows, adjusted EBITDA, total assets, cash balances, liquidity, debt covenant compliance, or — as the company pointedly added — "the trajectory or narrative of financial performance." The corrections are entirely non-cash reclassifications between equity and liabilities with related fair value adjustments.

For investors, the practical takeaway is straightforward: the numbers that matter for evaluating the business aren't changing. But the optics of a multi-year restatement and a management cease trade order are never good — particularly for a company that has spent years trying to rebuild credibility after a turbulent post-legalization period.

The restatement is a bookkeeping fix, not a business crisis. But for Canopy Growth, the timing of yet another headline-generating complication is far from ideal.

Enveric Biosciences is chasing one of the most compelling ideas in mental health drug development: what if you could deliver the brain-rewiring benefits of psychedelics without the psychedelic experience itself?

The preclinical-stage biotech reported Q1 2026 results that are less about financials — this is a company with no revenue and a $1.6 million net loss for the quarter — and more about the scientific and strategic progress that will determine whether EB-003, its lead candidate, ever reaches patients.

On that front, the quarter delivered meaningful data points. Enveric reported receptor engagement assay results showing EB-003 demonstrates dual Gq and β-arrestin signaling at the 5-HT2A receptor — pathways linked in peer-reviewed research to antidepressant and anxiolytic effects. Post-quarter, the company highlighted positive preclinical results showing EB-003 produced a rapid reduction in conditioned fear response in a validated PTSD model — data that supports expanding the candidate's potential patient population beyond depression and anxiety.

What makes EB-003 scientifically distinct is its design as the first known compound engineered to selectively engage both 5-HT2A and 5-HT1B receptors to deliver fast-acting, durable effects without hallucinogenic properties. If the science holds through clinical trials, it could offer something the emerging psychedelic therapeutics sector desperately needs: a treatment that can be administered in an outpatient setting without the supervised psychedelic sessions that limit scalability.

The intellectual property story also strengthened. AbbVie withdrew its Post-Grant Review petition challenging patents relevant to bretisilocin (GM-2505) — the molecule AbbVie acquired in a $1.2 billion deal from Gilgamesh Pharmaceuticals. That withdrawal reinforces the validity of Enveric's patent portfolio, which CEO Joseph Tucker called "a foundational driver of long-term value creation" and a potential source of future partnering and monetization opportunities.

On the balance sheet, Enveric ended Q1 with $4.9 million in cash, supplemented by a post-quarter private placement generating up to $13.9 million (including $5 million upfront) and $1.5 million from warrant exercises. As of May 15, cash stood at approximately $10.3 million — enough to fund preclinical completion, a planned IND filing, and operations into early fiscal 2027.

The Trump Executive Order accelerating treatments for serious mental illness provides a favorable policy backdrop, and Tucker positioned EB-003 as exactly the kind of non-hallucinogenic neuroplastogen the regulatory environment is beginning to embrace.

Early stage. Real science. And a patent portfolio that a $1.2 billion acquirer just stopped challenging. Worth watching.

🗞️ The News

📺 Trade To Black

Georgia Expands Medical Cannabis, Earnings Momentum Builds Across Cannabis Sector | TTB Weekly Recap

  • Georgia: Governor Kemp signed SB 220, expanding the state's medical cannabis program with new product formats and broader patient access.

  • Washington: Lawmakers criticized congressional gridlock during Cannabis Week of Unity as Schedule III momentum builds ahead of the June 29 DEA hearings.

  • Earnings: Q1 results covered from Glass House, Jushi, Village Farms, Auxly, and Organigram — spanning margin expansion to international growth.

  • Industry Outlook: Companies are accelerating DEA registration, interstate commerce prep, and European expansion, with executives sounding more optimistic than they have in years.